A 100-meter wide asteroid, reminiscent of the one that devastated 2200 square kilometers of forest in Russia in 1908, faces a slight chance of impacting Earth within a decade.
Discovered by NASA telescopes on December 27 last year, just two days after its close approach to Earth, this celestial object has been designated as Asteroid 2024 YR4.
The detection has activated global planetary defense systems, indicating a 1.3 percent chance of a collision with Earth on December 22, 2032.
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NASA’s Centre for Near Earth Object Studies recently reported that potential impact zones include “the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia”.
Curtin University’s Dr. Hadrien Devillepois, lead scientist in the Desert Fireball Network, stated that ongoing observations are essential to ascertain if the asteroid will miss Earth, though certainty is not guaranteed.
“We require more observations, particularly spaced out over time, to accurately predict the asteroid’s trajectory,” he said.
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“In the unlikely scenario that it is on a collision course with Earth in 2032, the asteroid would unleash explosive energy akin to the Tunguska impact of 1908.
The atmospheric explosion from the Tunguska event caused significant local destruction, flattening vast areas of forest and likely resulting in fatalities.”
Dr. Evie Kendal, from the Ethical, Legal, and Social Implications of Emerging Technologies research group at Swinburne University of Technology, emphasized the importance of a “global strategy” to manage such threats.
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“Planetary defense technologies capable of redirecting an asteroid on a collision course have been developed, yet the ethical and legal governance surrounding their deployment remains unresolved,” she added.
“NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully demonstrated kinetic impactor technologies in 2022, altering the trajectory of the Dimorphos asteroid. However, the question of who bears responsibility for planetary defense on a global scale remains open.”
Curtin University’s Professor Fred Jourdan noted that while a collision is improbable, the asteroid could bring “potentially catastrophic consequences,” underscoring the need for a plan to deflect or destroy it.
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“This strategy must be informed by understanding the asteroid’s composition and structure: different types require distinct deflection techniques,” he highlighted.
“Therefore, detailed observations are crucial, potentially necessitating the dispatch of a spacecraft for accurate measurements. Thankfully, with only a one percent chance of impact, we hope it won’t escalate to that point.”
Professor of astrophysics Jonti Horner from the University of Southern Queensland reassured the public to “remain calm”.
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“The vast majority of Earth is unoccupied space – and the primary area at risk from an impact is the open ocean – thus the most probable result of a collision would be a stunning light display with no casualties,” he explained.
“We will have more data in 2028 when the asteroid makes another close approach to Earth, allowing us to refine impact risk assessments and to initiate planning if necessary.”
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