BRUSSELS — Brussels had high expectations for Keir Starmer’s Brexit reset, but those expectations have been adjusted downward.
Six months of red lines and rejection have dashed hopes that the new U.K. prime minister genuinely aims to reverse the more extreme elements of the Tory Brexit settlement.
While officials and diplomats still believe improvements to the U.K.-EU cross-channel relationship are possible, no one expects these changes to be game-changers. All anticipate that progress will take time.
London’s decisions regarding visas for young people and student exchanges have drained early optimism in the EU capital. The ongoing red lines concerning the single market, customs union, and free movement have not helped the situation.
In Brussels, frustration initially set in and has now moved toward acceptance.
“The substance is not there, but it’s not like anything’s breaking because of it,” one EU diplomat told POLITICO, speaking under anonymity.
“We are quite content with the status quo — it would be nice to have more, but we’re not desperately missing anything.”
A second EU official expressed that there is now a realization in Brussels that expectations were too high when Starmer took office last year, leading to frustrations over the new government’s slow pace and Euroskeptic outlook.
However, with challenges like Donald Trump, AI, and the climate emergency testing governments across Europe, no one has had the luxury to focus solely on what London wants or doesn’t want.
“Every single capital has moved on, and nobody has been discussing the relationship with London as a priority. It remains important but is just one of many significant issues,” a third senior EU diplomat noted.
The first diplomat mentioned previously added: “I currently spend about 10 minutes a week thinking about the U.K.”
Confidence Booster
In this context, Starmer will meet EU leaders at an informal “retreat” in Brussels on Monday.
The gathering, initially scheduled for a chateau in the Walloon countryside, was relocated to Egmont Palace in Brussels’ diplomatic district due to security concerns at the original location.
The 27 presidents and prime ministers will spend the day discussing European security and the war in Ukraine before Starmer joins them for dinner to provide some U.K. input.
This day will be less of a U.K.-EU summit and more of the U.K. being one item on a broader EU agenda. While other leaders converse, Starmer will visit NATO headquarters, meeting Secretary General Mark Rutte and holding his own press conference.
The last EU diplomat quoted described Starmer’s attendance at the EU meeting as a “confidence booster” for the “longer trajectory” of resetting relations. Both Brussels and London express a desire to enhance collaboration on defense and security, which is widely considered the easiest area for finding common ground.
However, expectations that the meeting — termed a “retreat” to highlight its informal nature — will result in significant movement on the U.K.-EU front remain low. London has expressed a desire for a security deal, yet has been slow to clarify what that entails.
EU officials have noted that this uncertainty is a recurring theme across various policy areas. The new U.K. government has some broad ideas to enhance the U.K.-EU relationship: mutual recognition of professional qualifications, reducing barriers for touring British artists, and a phytosanitary agreement aimed at minimizing border friction for agricultural trade.
Yet, six months in, London has not detailed what any of these proposals would concretely involve. When asked about the model for the U.K.’s preferred phytosanitary agreement, Brexit minister Nick Thomas-Symonds stated in January that it would be “bespoke.”
Additionally, since December, the minister has referred to the Labour manifesto commitments on Europe as “examples” of potential achievements, further muddying the objectives.
Thomas-Symonds will also be in Brussels next week to speak alongside his EU counterpart Maroš Šefčovič at the annual U.K.-EU Forum conference. One U.K. official remarked that the minister’s address would emphasize that the government will “only pursue actions that serve the national interest.”
European diplomats are relaying their frustrations regarding Britain’s stance to their contacts back in the U.K. One British individual who regularly speaks with EU institutions reported: “If you talk to anyone in Europe, they ask — ‘what do you actually want?’” A second inquired about the Cabinet Office’s unit for European relations: “What are they actually doing?”
U.K. officials argue that it is natural for some ambassadors and foreign ministers to be unaware of the full details of discussions because they are taking place directly with the European Commission.
Nurturing and Watering
The senior EU diplomat mentioned earlier cautioned against expecting an “epiphany” from Starmer’s attendance on Monday, but acknowledged that it represents an important step for the renewed relationship.
“Many would like to see immediate results, but that’s not typically how international relations or politics work,” they remarked, adding, “I believe we are witnessing progress.”
The diplomat pointed to the recent appointment of British negotiator Michael Ellam and a planned comprehensive U.K.-EU summit later in the spring as signs of impending change — albeit slow and limited in scope.
As for those earlier high expectations? A more pragmatic approach to the U.K.-EU relationship may be necessary.
“There is a growing awareness that this relationship is like a plant that requires nurturing and watering, and we are gradually moving in that direction.”
