On Tuesday, Ukraine agreed to a preliminary proposal from the Trump administration that called for a 30-day ceasefire, contingent on Russia’s acceptance of terms aimed at ending the brutal war.
However, even if the Trump administration succeeds in bringing Moscow to the negotiating table and ending the three-year conflict through a new treaty, several security experts question whether Russian President Vladimir Putin can be trusted.
Historically, Russia under Putin has violated international agreements designed to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty, primarily from its former Soviet overlord.
UKRAINE ACCEPTS DEAL, SAYS RUBIO: ‘WE’LL TAKE THIS TO THE RUSSIANS’
These agreements include the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal in exchange for assurances regarding its territorial integrity after the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union. Similarly, the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between Moscow and Kyiv required both nations to respect each other’s borders. Both treaties were first contravened in 2014 when Putin annexed Crimea and supported Russian separatist forces in the Donbas region.
The Minsk Agreements of 2014-2015, despite being criticized as weak, sought to halt Russia’s aggression in eastern Ukraine, but this agreement was never fully realized and was further violated by Putin’s invasion in 2022.
World leaders and security officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have warned that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to be achieved in the near term and raise concerns about Putin’s reliability in adhering to any international agreements without substantial security commitments from the West.
Michael Ryan, a former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy, remarked, “The problem here is that the Russians only understand win-lose outcomes, which means that to prevent them from ever attacking Ukraine again, they must see themselves as the losers in the war, much like at the end of the Cold War,” in an interview with Fox News Digital.
Security officials interviewed by Fox News Digital emphasized that securing Ukraine’s future is not about “trusting” Putin. Instead, it’s about placing Russia in a position where any future violations would result in greater consequences for Moscow than the benefits gained from unchecked aggression.
TRUMP THREATENS SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA, DEMANDS PEACE AFTER MAJOR HITS IN UKRAINE
Rebekah Koffler, a former DIA intelligence officer, noted, “Even if a deal is made, Russia will persist in clandestine operations worldwide to expand its geopolitical influence,” emphasizing that the former KGB operative can be expected to continue activities such as “election interference campaigns, cyber warfare, espionage, and destabilization operations globally.”
“There’s no such thing as peace in Russia’s strategic military thinking. You are in a constant confrontation,” she added.
Ryan further argued that any Trump-brokered peace deal must take into account the lessons learned from previous failed agreements, such as the post-WWI Treaty of Versailles, which arguably contributed to the rise of Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany.
To resolve this complex situation, Ryan suggested that the reconstruction of Ukraine must include economic reconciliation with Russia, stating, “The Russians observed how we rebuilt the losing side in World War II, namely Germany and Japan. They expected a similar approach after the Cold War, but we did not.”
“We can’t repeat that mistake if we desire lasting peace for Ukraine and aim to separate Russia from China,” he continued, noting that other adversaries are observing the West’s handling of this geopolitical challenge.
Numerous challenges exist regarding the Trump administration’s negotiations with Putin, including discussions about occupied territory, international recognition of these lands, international support for Ukraine, the confiscation of frozen Russian assets, Zelenskyy’s domestic standing, prisoner exchanges, and the repatriation of abducted Ukrainian children, according to Peter Rough, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
Rough stated, “Putin has officially annexed four Ukrainian oblasts, along with Crimea, but Moscow has yet to fully conquer any of the four.” He added, “I can’t envision Ukraine withdrawing from regions they have fought tirelessly to defend.”
He expressed skepticism that the West would grant de jure recognition to the areas controlled by Moscow, indicating, “Thus, Putin would have to endure all of this in a peace agreement.”
Each of these issues presents a monumental challenge to negotiate. While Ukraine may outline concessions to facilitate a U.S.-coordinated deal, Putin is unlikely to reciprocate, as noted by Koffler, who warned about Putin’s intentions prior to the 2022 invasion.
RUBIO SAYS MINERAL DEAL ‘NOT MAIN TOPIC ON AGENDA’ IN UKRAINE MEETING
Koffler asserted that “Putin is unlikely to make any concessions as he perceives himself to be in a robust position.” She explained, “The disparity in combat potential heavily favors Russia over Ukraine, which is outnumbered and outgunned, given that Putin transitioned the Russian military and economy to a wartime footing seven years before the invasion.”
“Putin believes he has prepared Russia to fight until the last Ukrainian and the last missile in NATO’s arsenal,” she added, echoing a warning from NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte about Russia’s defense industry outputs.
Koffler concluded, “Putin is highly unlikely to agree to a ceasefire because he doesn’t wish to allow a strategic pause for Ukraine, the U.S., and NATO to re-arm. He doesn’t trust Washington, and he doesn’t trust President Trump any more than we trust Putin.”
Ultimately, the experts agree that there are numerous variables that could affect the outcome of negotiations, shaping whether Putin can be held accountable or “trusted” regarding future agreements.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
In conclusion, Koffler stated, “Putin will not withdraw from eastern Ukraine.” She emphasized, “Ukraine has always represented a red line for Putin concerning geopolitical control, whether it be Russia or the West. He will continuously enforce this red line. The only way to ensure that Putin does not invade another nation is to strengthen NATO, bolster force posture, increase defense spending, secure command-and-control networks, and develop a robust deterrence strategy that counters every aspect of Putin’s approach.”
