WASHINGTON — The CIA now believes that the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic most likely originated from a laboratory, according to an assessment released Saturday. This report points to China, even while acknowledging that the spy agency has “low confidence” in its own conclusion.
The finding is not the result of any new intelligence; instead, it was completed at the behest of the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns. It was declassified and released Saturday on the orders of John Ratcliffe, who was sworn in Thursday as director after being appointed by President Donald Trump.
The nuanced finding suggests that the CIA believes the totality of evidence makes a lab origin more likely than a natural origin. However, the agency’s assessment assigns a low degree of confidence to this conclusion, indicating that the evidence is deficient, inconclusive, or contradictory.
Previous reports on the origins of COVID-19 have been divided over whether the coronavirus emerged from a Chinese lab, potentially by mistake, or whether it arose naturally. The new assessment is unlikely to settle this ongoing debate. In fact, intelligence officials suggest it may never be resolved due to a lack of cooperation from Chinese authorities.
The CIA “continues to assess that both research-related and natural origin scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic remain plausible,” the agency stated regarding its new assessment.
Rather than new evidence, the conclusion was based on fresh analyses of intelligence concerning the virus’s spread, its scientific properties, and the operations and conditions of China’s virology labs.
Lawmakers have pressured America’s spy agencies for more information about the origins of the virus, which has led to lockdowns, economic upheaval, and millions of deaths. This question carries significant domestic and geopolitical implications as the world continues to grapple with the legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, expressed satisfaction that the CIA concluded in the final days of the Biden administration that the lab-leak theory is the most plausible explanation. He commended Ratcliffe for declassifying the assessment, stating, “Now, the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world.”
China’s embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comments. Chinese authorities have previously dismissed speculation about COVID-19‘s origins as unhelpful and politically motivated.
While the virus’s origin remains unknown, scientists believe the most likely hypothesis is that it circulated in bats, similar to many coronaviruses, before infecting another species, possibly raccoon dogs, civet cats, or bamboo rats. This infection likely spread to humans handling or butchering those animals at a market in Wuhan, where the first human cases appeared in late November 2019.
Some official investigations have raised questions about whether the virus escaped from a lab in Wuhan. Two years ago, a report by the Energy Department concluded that a lab leak was the most likely origin, though that report also expressed low confidence in its findings.
That same year, then-FBI Director Christopher Wray stated that his agency believed the virus “most likely” spread after escaping from a lab.
Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during Trump’s first term, has also indicated his support for the lab leak scenario. He stated, “The lab leak is the only theory supported by science, intelligence, and common sense,” in 2023.
The CIA affirmed that it will continue to evaluate any new information that could change its assessment.
