The “super election year” in Croatia is nearing its conclusion, but voters in the Balkans may soon have another opportunity to head to the polls in early 2024.
This Sunday marks the country’s presidential election, the third electoral event in 2023, following a snap parliamentary election in April and the European Parliament election in June.
If no candidate secures a majority, which appears unlikely, a runoff will take place on January 12.
Polls suggest a continuation of the political divide in Croatia, with Zoran Milanović poised to win reelection as president. Although this role is largely ceremonial, it allows him to continue challenging his rival, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković.
Milanović, a former prime minister often referred to as the “Croatian Trump” due to his ultranationalist populism, is the most popular politician in Croatia, with recent polls indicating he holds 39 percent support ahead of the December 29 election.
His closest competitor is Dragan Primorac from Plenković’s Christian Democratic Union (HDZ), who is polling at 24 percent.
The anticipated second round is likely to pit these two candidates against each other.
The campaign has been characterized by the ongoing hostilities between Milanović and Plenković.
Milanović, known for his sharp criticisms of both the EU and NATO, has labeled Plenković a “dictator” and has sought to exploit a series of corruption scandals that led to the resignation of 31 ministers from the ruling party earlier this year.
He accuses Plenković of mismanaging immigration, which he claims is Croatia’s top challenge, and has referred to Plenković as a “fire-spewing badger” controlled by Brussels and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s errand boy.
In contrast, Plenković has framed the election as a critical decision for Croatia’s future within the EU.
“Milanović is a cancer of Croatian politics,” Plenković stated early in December, urging voters to back Primorac.
He added, “The difference between him and Milanović is straightforward. Milanović is steering us East, while Primorac is guiding us West.”
On the issue of Ukraine, the candidates are deeply divided. Plenković advocates for military support to Kyiv, while Milanović has spoken against it and criticized sanctions on Russia. In October, he blocked Croatian participation in NATO’s mission to support Ukraine.
Should Primorac face Milanović in the runoff, analysts predict he may falter.
“Primorac is not charismatic enough to resonate with the electorate,” noted Ivan Grdešić, a political science professor at Libertas International University and former Croatian ambassador to the UK and the US. “His approach can be a bit too sophisticated for the general public.”
Primorac’s campaign is clouded by a recent scandal involving the Health Minister Vili Beroš, who was arrested amid a corruption probe.
“There are many doubts among patients regarding his suitability as a candidate given his ties to the same political party as the dismissed minister,” remarked Jasna Karacic Zanetti, Croatia’s ombudsman for patient rights. “Even if he wasn’t involved in the scandal, it could still affect his candidacy.”
Zoran Milanović’s office has not responded to POLITICO’s request for an interview, and Dragan Primorac has also not replied to inquiries.
