Europe faces turbulent times ahead. The reelection of Donald Trump as U.S. president marks yet another shock following the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine. His policies toward NATO and tariffs threaten to increase instability on a continent where the political landscape is already precarious.
As the power dynamics shift, new centers of influence are expected to emerge. We consulted a group of leading thinkers — historians and political scientists specializing in various periods — to share their predictions on the future political landscape.
Desmond Dinan: The Emergence of Warsaw
Desmond Dinan is a professor of public policy at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government.
Poland’s rise as a central power in the EU is partly due to the decline of the traditional Franco-German axis and the growing significance of frontline countries after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The recent change in government, with Donald Tusk returning as prime minister, has also been pivotal.
In a display of Poland’s renewed diplomatic vigor, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski recently hosted a meeting with leaders from the EU’s five largest nations and the UK to bolster support for Ukraine among Europe’s most militarily capable countries. Shortly after, Tusk participated in a summit with Nordic-Baltic leaders, culminating in a joint statement on security cooperation and a new strategic partnership with Sweden.
Poland’s ascent in the east is brightening the EU’s prospects amid a daunting backdrop. Sikorski, in particular, is a versatile figure. Regarding EU-U.S. relations, he aspires to be a key player this winter. A committed transatlanticist, he aims to prevent relations with Washington from freezing over.
Having worked in Washington two decades ago, Sikorski can leverage his extensive contacts to mitigate the more extreme tendencies of a potential Trump administration. Although he once held Euroskeptic views, his evolution into a member of the EU establishment indicates adaptability — a quality that may resonate with political opportunists in the U.S.
Despite his recent bid for his party’s presidential nomination in Poland, Sikorski’s presence could leave a favorable impression on the incoming administration.
Sikorski could also reverse his previous tactic of simplifying complex treaties, perhaps condensing the Treaty on the European Union into a more digestible format to impress Washington with the EU’s agility.
Eleanor Janega: The Rise of the New Left
Eleanor Janega is a historian and broadcaster focusing on propaganda, urbanity, and empire in the late medieval and early modern periods. She co-hosts the podcast “Gone Medieval.”
It’s been a challenging year for left-leaning voters.
In both the U.K. and the U.S., center-left parties have marginalized leftist activists, alienating their traditional bases. The Labour Party has actively worked to expel leftists, while the Democrats have prioritized appeasing centrist Republicans over addressing wealth inequality. Consequently, many leftist voters chose to abstain from voting.
In France, a potential broad-left coalition to counter far-right movements faced setbacks when President Emmanuel Macron opted for a right-wing prime minister, undermining hopes for inclusive governance.
With mainstream parties disregarding leftist priorities, where can those desiring a fairer society find hope in 2025?
One noteworthy government to monitor is that of Mexico, where President Claudia Sheinbaum enjoys a remarkable approval rating of 70 percent shortly after taking office, largely due to her focus on women’s rights and welfare programs.
Additionally, figures like U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders have criticized the lack of substantial alternatives to the status quo, suggesting a potential reawakening of commitment to the working class within the left.
The burgeoning left-wing media landscape also provides a glimmer of hope, with an increase in platforms offering critical perspectives and collaborative opportunities.
Mike Duncan: The Influence of Tech Oligarchs
Mike Duncan is a political history podcaster and author known for “History of Rome” and “Revolutions.”
The recent electoral results in the U.S. have significantly empowered Silicon Valley oligarchs who control global communications.
Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter and subsequent algorithm manipulations have contributed to Trump’s electoral success. Other tech moguls like Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen have financed right-wing propaganda networks, aiming to dismantle regulatory frameworks.
These individuals primarily seek to amass personal wealth while distorting global discourse to align with their ideologies, operating with minimal opposition from Washington’s political landscape.
One pressing issue remains global migration, with Trump signaling a harsh stance not only against new immigrants but also against those already in the U.S. His administration will likely employ anti-immigrant advocate Stephen Miller, known for his severe border policies.
Trump’s return may also embolden leaders engaged in military conflicts, like Russian President Vladimir Putin, who could see U.S. support for Ukraine diminish as Trump adopts a more favorable stance toward Russia.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also likely to feel empowered, potentially escalating the conflict in Gaza under a Trump administration.
Caterina Froio: The Role of Higher Education
Caterina Froio is an associate professor of political science at Sciences Po, focusing on far-right politics and political participation.
Academic institutions are evolving into influential catalysts for social change, playing a central role in political conflicts and societal transformations.
Today’s student movements are forging transnational connections to address social struggles against authoritarianism, focusing on climate action, reproductive rights, and human rights. Their documentation of violations has garnered attention, extending to international bodies like the International Criminal Court.
However, these movements face backlash from far-right campaigns targeting universities and attempting to delegitimize critical research.
The resistance of scholars in vulnerable fields will be crucial. For instance, climate research is vital in challenging narratives prioritizing short-term profits over long-term sustainability, while AI research addresses ethical dilemmas posed by technological advancements.
University leaders face a moral dilemma, needing to choose between supporting academic freedom and capitulating to far-right pressures, with implications for democratic stability.
As global power dynamics shift and authoritarianism resurges, universities can counter democratic erosion by fostering critical discourse and challenging existing power structures. They are no longer merely educational institutions; they are pivotal actors in the quest for social justice.
