WASHINGTON — Russian space technologies, if transferred to Pyongyang in compensation for its support of Moscow’s war on Ukraine, could significantly enhance North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities, according to U.S. experts.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in Seoul, “The DPRK [North Korea] is already receiving Russian military equipment and training. Now, we have reason to believe that Moscow intends to share advanced space and satellite technology with Pyongyang.” This development raises concerns about the potential impact on East Asia and the broader geopolitical landscape.
U.S. defense officials report that North Korea has deployed approximately 12,000 troops to Russia, with around 1,000 casualties reported from fighting in Russia’s Kursk region. For months, top diplomats and defense analysts have suggested that North Korea anticipates receiving Russian technical assistance for its nuclear and missile programs in exchange for its support.
Robert Peters, a research fellow for nuclear deterrence and missile defense at the Heritage Foundation, noted that any technological assistance from Russia would likely aim to develop North Korea’s ICBM program under the guise of non-military satellite programs. He emphasized that solutions for space launch vehicles can also apply to ballistic missiles. “It would be politically very challenging for Russia to announce that it is going to help North Korea with its ICBM program,” Peters explained. “However, the Russian narrative could present it as merely support for a satellite program, though it’s clear that many are not deceived by this.”
Peters highlighted that two critical areas where North Korea could significantly benefit from Russia’s space program are accuracy and reliability, both essential for effectively delivering nuclear warheads. “Getting the actual warhead package on target is no small task,” he elaborated. He noted that the United States and Russia have developed methods over the past 35 years to achieve this that were not possible during the Cold War.
Moreover, Peters pointed out that North Korean engineers have faced challenges in ensuring that warheads can reliably survive reentry from space to produce a yield. Vann Van Diepen, who served as deputy assistant secretary of state for international security and nonproliferation from 2009 to 2016, stated that technologies related to satellite dispensing and maneuvering could enhance North Korea’s ICBM program.
“If space launch vehicle technology or booster technology gets transferred as part of so-called ‘space technology,’ then that potentially could be applicable to probably liquid-propellant ICBMs,” Van Diepen remarked. Many satellites utilize liquid propellants for efficiency and controllability, which could pose a significant threat to both East Asia and Europe.
Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, also noted that satellite launch vehicles contain components adaptable for North Korea’s liquid-fueled ICBMs. “Such technology could extend the range or increase the carrying capacity of these missiles, enabling them to carry more warheads,” Bennett explained. The majority of North Korea’s known ICBMs are believed to utilize liquid fuels.
Peters warned that Russia’s assistance could pose a serious threat to the continental United States. “The only reason for North Korea to build ICBMs is to target the United States, as they don’t need ICBMs to target South Korea or Japan,” he stated. This situation could lead East Asian allies to question whether Washington can maintain its regional deterrence commitments in the face of direct threats.
Even in the absence of direct ICBM technology transfers, Van Diepen cautioned that enhanced North Korean satellite technology would be detrimental to the U.S. and its allies. “If Russia helps North Korea improve its reconnaissance satellites — with higher resolution imaging, for instance — that would enhance North Korea’s targeting and intelligence capabilities, which is detrimental to the United States and its allies,” he said. “Therefore, even without direct technology transfers that would assist North Korea’s ICBM program, this remains a concerning issue that the United States would oppose.”
In November 2023, North Korea announced the successful launch of a military reconnaissance satellite into orbit following two failed attempts. Seoul believes that Russian support likely contributed to this success, according to The Associated Press. Bruce Bechtol, a former U.S. defense intelligence officer, noted that Pyongyang is striving to enhance its satellite capabilities for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
Bechtol observed, “The North Koreans have successfully placed a satellite into orbit before, but they require specific technology for intelligence collection, which they need to obtain from a benefactor, either China or Russia. It appears that they are receiving this technology from the Russians, which is troubling.”
China has maintained a cautious position regarding the potential transfer of missile technology from Russia to North Korea while balancing its relationships with both Moscow and Pyongyang. Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson at the Chinese Embassy in Washington, stated, “North Korea and Russia are two independent sovereign states. How to develop bilateral relations is their own business.”
Recently, North Korea conducted a test launch of what it described as a new hypersonic intermediate-range missile, which traveled approximately 1,100 kilometers before landing in the sea off the east coast. This test occurred just two weeks before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office, following his previous meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during his first term, which ended before nuclear negotiations collapsed.
Bennett and other experts suspect that Russia may have provided North Korea with knowledge regarding new materials, such as carbon fiber, which Pyongyang claims to have used in developing its latest missile. “They tested a hypersonic missile earlier last year, so they likely received some of that technology. However, in almost all areas of technology, it’s essential to progress step by step,” Bennett commented. “It is likely that Russian scientists have collaborated with North Korean scientists to enhance the missile vehicle since their last test a year ago.”
