BERLIN — Friedrich Merz is already encountering significant political challenges before even assuming his chancellorship following the German election 2025.
The incoming leader faces declining approval ratings and increasing criticism from segments of his conservative base, who believe he is capitulating to the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) during coalition negotiations. Merz’s detractors argue he is not fulfilling his pre-election promises to steer his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) firmly to the right on essential policy issues.
This discontent within the ranks has become public in recent days, particularly after members of the conservative bloc’s youth organization in Cologne expressed their dissatisfaction in a letter to Merz.
“Mr. Merz, we believed in your political leadership. We trusted you. And we have fought for you,” the letter stated. “But we are now asking the question: for what? For a CDU that submits to the left-wing mainstream?”
After years of weak, divided governance under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, many European leaders had anticipated that Merz could provide robust German leadership within the European Union. Merz has also pledged to deliver that leadership, especially in response to challenges posed by U.S. President Donald Trump, promising after his victory in the February 23 snap election to “strengthen Europe as quickly as possible to achieve independence from the USA step by step.”
However, Merz’s recent political troubles have left him in a vulnerable position, potentially requiring him to focus more on mending his damaged image domestically. Germany’s conservative bloc is currently slipping in the polls, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to become the largest opposition party when the new Bundestag convenes, benefitting from the incoming chancellor’s newfound weaknesses.
The latest Deutschlandtrend poll indicates that support for Merz’s conservative bloc has decreased by three percentage points to 26 percent, while the AfD has gained the same margin, reaching 24 percent support—its highest result to date. Alarmingly for Merz, only 25 percent of Germans currently approve of his performance, a drop of 10 percentage points since February, when conservatives secured victory in the national election.
Merz’s challenges escalated after he reached a historic agreement with the SPD and the Greens to allocate up to €1 trillion in new spending for defense and infrastructure over the next decade, including €100 billion for Germany’s transition to green energy. While this significant shift away from more than 15 years of self-imposed austerity has garnered international approval, it has left many domestic conservatives disgruntled, perceiving that Merz—who had promised fiscal discipline prior to the election—has provided his center-left opponents with the debt-driven spending they have long advocated.
This decision has also opened him up to sharp criticism from the AfD, whose leaders have accused Merz of betraying his voter base. “What do you actually stand for, Mr. Merz?” one AfD leader, Tino Chrupalla, queried in parliament. “By now, you have the mRNA of the SPD implanted in you.”
Germany ‘will suffer massive damage’
Much of the dissent directed at Merz originates from the Young Union, the youth organization of his conservative bloc.
Johannes Winkel, the chair of the Young Union and a member of the CDU board, has threatened to oppose any coalition agreement with the SPD that fails to deliver on fundamental conservative policies. He has called for stricter migration controls and a restoration of economic competitiveness through reduced regulation and bureaucracy.
“If we enter into a coalition without the overdue and promised policy changes, the country will suffer massive damage,” Winkel stated in an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung.
The Cologne youth organization has insisted that Merz adhere to his pre-election promises by rejecting asylum seekers at the border, avoiding tax hikes, and implementing a substantial reduction of bureaucracy—all policies that the SPD has resisted to varying extents.
“If this course is not corrected immediately, you will not only jeopardize the CDU’s profile — you will destroy the trust of the people and the commitment of its members,” the conservative youth warned.
The dilemma for Merz is that he lacks significant leverage to persuade the SPD to conform to conservative demands. His expansive spending plan has already granted the SPD many of its desires, and after ruling out an alliance with the AfD, he has no other viable coalition partners.
In recent days, Merz has been attempting to appease his dissatisfied supporters, addressing their primary concerns as Trump’s tariffs disrupt markets across Europe and beyond.
“The situation on international equity and bond markets is dramatic and threatens to worsen,” Merz told Reuters. “It is more crucial than ever for Germany to restore its competitiveness. That must be the central focus of coalition discussions.”
As Europe grapples with its most formidable challenges since the Cold War, it remains uncertain if Merz will exit these negotiations with the political capital necessary to rise to the occasion.
