The number of individuals killed in Gaza is significantly higher than the figures reported by authorities in the region, according to a peer-reviewed study conducted by researchers from a prominent health research university in the UK.
Findings released by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and published in The Lancet journal indicate an estimated 64,260 “traumatic injury deaths” occurred in Gaza from October 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024.
In contrast, the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza reported 37,877 fatalities at that time.
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This suggests that the ministry has underreported the death toll due to violence by approximately 41%, according to the researchers.
As of October, the number of Gazans killed by violence was believed to exceed 70,000, based on the estimated underreporting rate.
The total death toll attributable to Israel’s military campaign is likely to be even higher, as the analysis does not consider deaths caused by disruptions to healthcare, insufficient food, clean water, sanitation, and disease outbreaks.
The health ministry’s reported figure was 45,885 on January 7.
Additionally, another 109,196 individuals have been injured.
Typically, the ministry’s figures are compiled by counting the corpses of those killed.
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LSHTM indicates that these findings suggest approximately 3% of the enclave’s population has succumbed to violence, with 59% of these fatalities being women, children, and the elderly.
The disparity in figures compared to the ministry’s reports reflects the devastation of Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure and its consequent inability to accurately count the dead amid Israel’s continued bombardment of the region, as stated by LSHTM.
Researchers analyzed data from various sources, including hospital morgue records from the health ministry, an online survey driven by respondents, and obituaries shared on social media.
Estimated figures were derived using a statistical method known as “capture-recapture analysis,” which is applied when not all relevant data is documented.
Zeina Jamaluddine, lead author at LSHTM, emphasized that the results “underscore the urgent need for interventions to safeguard civilians and prevent further loss of life.”
Israel’s ongoing 14-month war in Gaza, initiated in response to Hamas’ attack on October 7, has devastated large portions of the enclave and destroyed vital healthcare infrastructure, placing immense pressure on the hospitals that remain operational.
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Recently, a report from Human Rights Watch (HRW) indicated that Israel has intentionally deprived Palestinians in Gaza of access to clean water, exacerbating the spread of disease and likely causing thousands of deaths.
The extent of the devastation resulting from water scarcity may never be fully comprehended, HRW cautioned, due to the destruction of Gaza’s healthcare system, which includes disease tracking capabilities.
Both HRW and Amnesty International have accused Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, a claim that Israel vehemently denies.
Israel is also facing allegations of genocide at the UN’s top court, the International Court of Justice.
Earlier this week, a Palestinian newborn died from hypothermia in Gaza, bringing the total number of infants who have died due to low temperatures and lack of access to warm shelters in recent weeks to at least six.
In total, eight individuals have died from hypothermia, according to health officials in the enclave, including a 2-year-old child and a nurse.
Aid organization Médecins Sans Frontières reported that three hospitals in Gaza—Nasser hospital, Al-Aqsa hospital, and European Gaza hospital—are on the brink of closure due to fuel shortages.
“This situation threatens the lives of hundreds of patients, including newborns, who rely on electricity to survive,” it stated.
