In the aftermath of Germany’s recent elections, the conservative victors are contemplating bypassing stringent spending regulations to implement a potentially substantial defense package. This consideration arises amid increasing concerns that the United States may no longer safeguard Europe under NATO.
The decision could materialize in a matter of weeks. To navigate around Germany’s constitutional spending limits, a two-thirds majority in parliament is essential. This situation may empower two parties that performed strongly in the February 23 vote — the far-right, pro-Kremlin Alternative for Germany (AfD) and The Left, which opposes military expenditure — to hinder the proposed package.
Newly-elected lawmakers must convene by March 25, which grants the current parliament a limited window to act.
Discussions regarding a possible defense spending package — and its financing — are reportedly underway. Friedrich Merz, the conservative leader poised to become Germany’s next chancellor, exhibited caution when queried about the initiative by a reporter on Tuesday.
“We are in discussions, but it is far too early to make any declarations,” he stated. “I perceive it as quite challenging at present. However, as I mentioned, talks are ongoing. That’s the extent of what I can disclose.”
Earlier that day, Jens Spahn, deputy leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) parliamentary group, confirmed that discussions on a defense spending package are indeed in progress.
“Friedrich Merz has indicated that he will engage in talks, including with the FDP and the Greens,” Spahn remarked on German television. “We will observe what decisions we may arrive at in the upcoming weeks.”
Merz and outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) engaged in discussions for over an hour in Berlin on Tuesday. According to a Bloomberg report, Merz approached the SPD to negotiate a €200 billion special defense spending package. When questioned about it on Tuesday, Merz stated he could “neither confirm nor deny” the figure.
Germany’s constitutional debt brake, established by former Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2009, restricts the structural budget deficit to 0.35 percent of gross domestic product, barring emergencies.
Lawmakers believe that declaring an emergency for financing defense spending will not adequately meet the country’s substantial long-term requirements. Alternatives being considered include constitutional reform to modify the debt brake or establishing a special fund for defense spending — both of which would also necessitate a two-thirds majority in parliament.
On Tuesday, Merz dismissed the prospect of broader reform of the debt brake in the near term, positioning a special fund as the most feasible solution.
“It is out of the question that we will reform the debt brake in the near future,” he informed reporters. “If it occurs at all, it will require extensive and challenging efforts.”
In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s left-leaning coalition and the conservative opposition reached an agreement on a €100 billion special fund for military armament, setting a precedent for similar initiatives now.
Securing such a majority for a special fund, however, presents a significant challenge even in the existing parliament. Left-leaning parties are advocating for relaxed spending restrictions not only for defense but also for infrastructure and investment. Conversely, conservatives aim to uphold fiscal discipline while easing spending limits solely for defense.
“Why should I accept that we are only discussing security when the entire German economy is calling for a reform of the debt brake?” queried Katharina Dröge, one of the parliamentary group leaders of the Greens.
Dröge indicated that Merz had not yet approached the Greens about a defense spending package, but the party is open to negotiations.
The Left party outright rejected funding for arms.
“We will endorse a reform or abolition of the debt brake if it facilitates investment in our country’s future,” asserted Heidi Reichinnek, co-leader of The Left. “If attempts are made again to allocate even more resources for this through a special fund or specific clauses aimed at further militarization, then Die Linke will firmly oppose it. No, we are against rearmament.”
This discussion arises amid escalating concerns in Germany regarding the Trump administration’s stance on Ukraine and European defense. Following the recent election, Merz stated that Europe must be prepared to rely on itself for defense.
“My absolute priority will be to empower Europe as swiftly as possible so that, gradually, we can genuinely achieve independence from the USA,” he declared.
“I never thought I would have to articulate something like this on a television show. However, after Donald Trump’s remarks last week … it is evident that some segments of the American administration are largely indifferent to Europe’s fate.”
