BERLIN — Germany’s incoming government aims to compel the European Union to enforce stricter measures against member states that breach fundamental principles, a clear reference to Viktor Orbán’s Hungary.
The conservative faction led by incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz, alongside their prospective center-left coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), has reached a consensus to insist that the EU withhold funds and suspend voting rights from nations that violate essential tenets such as the rule of law, as outlined in a draft coalition agreement reviewed by POLITICO.
While Hungary is not explicitly named, the draft agreement unmistakably targets the EU’s most notorious violator, which has faced accusations for years of undermining democratic standards, restricting press freedom, and limiting judicial independence.
The parties involved, including Merz’s conservatives and the SPD, are currently in negotiations to form a coalition and must agree on fundamental principles before assuming office. The commitment to pressure the EU regarding countries like Hungary is part of a broader series of preliminary agreements covering various issues such as migration policy, coal phaseout, and welfare spending.
“Existing protective instruments, including infringement proceedings, withholding EU funds, and suspending membership rights such as voting rights in the Council of the EU, must be applied with greater consistency than before,” negotiators from both blocs stated in the draft coalition agreement concerning EU politics.
The European Parliament initiated the first phase of the Article 7 procedure — often referred to as the “nuclear option” — against Hungary in 2018 due to suspected “serious breaches” of the bloc’s core values and fundamental rights. However, this process, which could lead to the suspension of Hungary’s voting rights, has stalled amid political divisions among member states.
In 2022, the European Commission sought to block approximately €22 billion in EU funds designated for Hungary due to concerns regarding human rights and judicial independence. Eventually, it released more than €10 billion the following year, prompting significant backlash.
Another significant area of disagreement between the EU and Hungary’s government involves Orbán’s ties to Moscow, with Budapest consistently leveraging its veto power to block sanctions against Russian oligarchs and military leaders.
To circumvent Hungary’s veto power, the incoming German administration intends to advocate for an expansion of qualified majority voting in the Council of the EU, particularly regarding issues of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), such as sanction imposition. This would enable decisions to be made without Hungary’s consent.
The German Vote
More broadly, coalition negotiators have pledged to adopt a more proactive stance on the European stage by utilizing the Weimar Triangle—a loose alliance of France, Germany, and Poland—as a means to influence EU policy. Under the previous coalition government led by SPD’s Olaf Scholz, Germany’s relations with France and Poland had deteriorated.
“Within the Weimar Triangle, we will pursue close coordination on all pertinent European policy matters to act more united for the EU as a whole,” the draft agreement states, mirroring earlier comments made by Chancellor Merz, who has expressed intentions to visit both Paris and Warsaw on his inaugural day in office.
The conservatives have also committed to addressing a common complaint from other European capitals regarding Germany’s frequent abstention in critical EU votes, a scenario ironically termed the “German vote.” When internal disagreements arise among German ministries over EU policy, the nation typically abstains from votes. However, Merz has promised that such abstentions will not occur under his leadership regarding significant votes in Brussels.
Nevertheless, Merz’s conservatives and the SPD have differing views on how to achieve this goal. The conservatives desire that Merz have a more substantial role in determining Germany’s stance on crucial EU votes by “taking responsibility for coordination from the outset or managing it during the procedure.” Conversely, the SPD prefers to adhere to the “interministerial principle,” which focuses on resolving disputes between ministries.
The draft agreement outlining the government’s positions on EU matters has emerged from one of the 16 cross-party working groups tasked with formulating positions on key policy areas. Final negotiations among leading politicians are ongoing to create a cohesive coalition agreement based on these drafts.
A conclusive coalition agreement may be reached as early as mid-April.
