BRUSSELS — Hungary appears poised to retract its threat to obstruct the EU’s renewal of Russia sanctions, following a stern warning from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding potential escalated penalties against Moscow, as confirmed by five diplomats involved in the discussions.
Recently, Hungary has been publicly entertaining the idea of declining to reauthorize the EU’s Russia sanctions, a process that requires unanimous consent from all 27 member countries every six months. These sanctions include severe trade restrictions and the freezing of nearly €200 billion in sovereign assets.
“The time for change has come!” declared Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Tuesday.
Alongside his usual claims about the negative impact of these measures on the EU’s economy, Orbán has been insisting that the EU should wait to assess Trump’s approach to Russian sanctions before making any decisions.
On Wednesday, Orbán received clarity via a notably aggressive Truth Social post. Trump stated that Russia must “STOP this ridiculous war.” He further warned, “If it doesn’t, I have no other choice but to impose high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the U.S.”
By Thursday, diplomats in Brussels detected Hungary’s willingness to withdraw its veto threat, as evidenced by a notable shift in its private communications. Two diplomats noted that Hungary’s representative indicated uncertainty regarding the renewal during meetings, contrasting Orbán’s more defiant public stance.
“Hungary should consult their U.S. ally,” remarked one EU diplomat familiar with the negotiations, speaking anonymously. “Trump seems very much in favor of sanctions against Russia.”
Tick tock
This development comes just before a crucial meeting on Friday, where officials from the 27 EU countries will aim to finalize the reauthorization. Formally, officials have until January 31 to renew the sanctions. Additionally, the EU is preparing to impose further sanctions on Russia in the upcoming weeks.
“Regarding the rollover of sanctions, Orbán indicated he wanted to wait for the inauguration in the U.S. That has now occurred,” shared a second EU diplomat. “Trump’s messages were clear after his demand to Putin. So why would Orbán derail this?”
A third diplomat conveyed that the prevailing sentiment among colleagues is that the sanctions will undergo a “normal adoption process” on Friday, suggesting they will be renewed seamlessly, although they cautioned that an unexpected block could still occur at any moment.
If the penalties are not reauthorized on Friday, the EU’s foreign ministers will revisit the issue on Monday during a scheduled meeting in Brussels to discuss their Russia policy with Trump back in office.
Should the EU miss the final deadline without reauthorizing the sanctions, the immediate outcome would be the release of Russia’s frozen assets, primarily held by the Belgium-based deposit Euroclear, back to the Kremlin.
Two officials familiar with the proceedings indicated that there is no contingency plan to prevent this scenario. They refuted speculation that Belgium could invoke an 81-year-old decree allowing the monarch to block asset transfers to another country.
“This is Netflix. It’s not real life. It’s never been put on the table,” asserted one of the officials, clarifying that Euroclear is a private entity that manages the funds, not the Belgian government.
A prolonged pause in sanctions might also hinder the EU’s objective of phasing out Russian energy imports.
“If Hungary obstructs the renewal of these energy sanctions, it would undo significant advances in enhancing energy security within the bloc and betray its allies in Ukraine,” warned Isaac Levi, a Russian energy expert at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air think tank.
Hungary could also encounter repercussions if it undermines the EU’s sanctions framework. An additional official noted that the EU might reject Hungary’s multi-year spending plan — a vital document outlining its expenditure trajectory for the next four years, which is slated for approval in February.
“I don’t expect” Hungary to block the renewal, remarked another of the five diplomats observing Thursday’s discussions. “Hungary tends to raise the stakes, but if they withdraw the sanctions, it would create an explosive situation.”
