Recent attacks on strategically significant underwater cables in the Baltic Sea and South China Sea by Russia and China have raised alarms among top officials, who believe these incidents are not mere coincidences.
Maritime sabotage in these regions has increased over the last few years, with a significant uptick in recent months. At least three separate attacks have occurred since November, with Russia and China as the primary suspects. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas remarked, “The Kremlin has been running a hybrid campaign against Europe for years, involving disinformation and cyberattacks, which have intensified since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, Russia is not the only challenge we face.”
In November, two cables under the Baltic Sea were severed. A Chinese-flagged ship, the Yi Peng 3, was intercepted by Danish naval forces for investigation after it was found to have dragged its anchor for over 100 miles, cutting vital communication links between Sweden and Lithuania, as well as the only cable connecting Finland with Germany.
This incident mirrored an event from October 2023, in which another Chinese vessel, the NewNew Polar Bear, similarly damaged key infrastructure in the Gulf of Finland. The Balticconnector gas pipeline and two telecommunications cables between Sweden and Estonia were affected, highlighting the vulnerability of Western subsea infrastructure, especially following the significant damage to the Nord Stream pipelines.
By October 22, 2023, the Yi Peng 3 was reported docked in Arkhangelsk, Russia, with its anchor missing. European leaders quickly expressed suspicions of sabotage, with former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis noting the pattern of Chinese ships dragging anchors near crucial cables.
While Beijing has denied any wrongdoing, targeting undersea cables is not a new tactic for China. Taiwan is currently investigating claims that a China-linked ship damaged its internet cables, prompting Taipei to enhance its low-orbit satellite network to mitigate future risks from Beijing.
The U.S. Defense Department has warned of China’s intentions to invade Taiwan by 2027, with Chinese vessels now implicated in the sabotage of Baltic Sea cables. Kallas emphasized the strategic importance of a strong U.S. response to Russia to deter potential aggression from China, stating, “Supporting Ukraine today helps keep American forces out of future conflicts.”
China is not the only nation suspected of such actions. A vessel linked to Russia was seized by Finland, under investigation for damaging four telecommunications cables on Christmas Day by dragging its anchor.
The tanker Eagle S is believed to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” utilizing older ships to bypass sanctions and sustain oil exports to finance its war in Ukraine. Despite inquiries to the Pentagon and the White House, no responses have clarified whether recent attacks are connected. Security experts suggest that incidents in international politics rarely happen by chance.
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia, Heino Klinck, stated, “I don’t believe in coincidence in international affairs. Both malign actors thrive in the gray zone, and these attacks seem to be mutually reinforcing, showing the ineffectual international response thus far.”
NATO plans to announce a new defensive strategy named “Baltic Sentry,” which will enhance naval presence and employ AI technology to detect and respond to such acts of sabotage effectively. While NATO has not confirmed links between the recent maritime attacks and collaboration between Russia and China, a Western security official noted that the incidents appear more coordinated than initially thought.
