The ongoing threat posed by the Islamic State has resurfaced in the news following the New Year’s Day attack on a crowded Bourbon Street in New Orleans. A man with potential ties to the terrorist organization drove a pickup truck adorned with an ISIS flag into a crowd, tragically killing at least 15 people and injuring many others.
Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a U.S.-born citizen and Army veteran from Texas, is the suspect behind this heinous act. While the FBI has not confirmed his direct “affiliation” or “association” with the Islamic State, the group has been expanding its influence globally, particularly in regions such as the Sahel in Africa, despite earlier claims of its defeat in 2019.
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According to Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of the Long War Journal, “Claims of the Islamic State’s defeat mirror those made about al Qaeda and are premature. These groups may face setbacks, but they remain persistent threats.”
Roggio emphasized that the Islamic State continues to pose a significant threat from Afghanistan and has established a strong network in Africa, particularly in the Sahel region and Somalia, while its presence in Iraq and Syria endures.
While the FBI has not confirmed Jabbar’s direct involvement with ISIS, reports indicate that he expressed sympathy for the terrorist network, having allegedly pledged allegiance to ISIS in a series of videos shared on his Facebook page, as reported by The New York Times.
The motive behind the attack remains undisclosed, although Roggio stated that this incident is unlikely to signify a “resurgence” of ISIS. He pointed out that the terrorist organization is increasingly facing less resistance in areas where it previously encountered opposition.
The 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the recent fall of the Assad regime in Syria have created security vacuums in the Middle East and South Asia, reminiscent of the conditions that facilitated the rise of ISIS after the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. Security experts warn that these power gaps could be exploited by ISIS and other terrorist networks.
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ISIS-K, the regional affiliate of the Islamic State that originated in Iraq and Syria, made headlines in August 2021 when it attacked Afghans fleeing the Taliban during the U.S. withdrawal, resulting in the deaths of 13 American service members and approximately 170 Afghan civilians.
The Taliban’s takeover raised concerns that Afghanistan might become a haven for terrorists, including al Qaeda and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, as well as other jihadist groups. There are fears that the new Afghan government might be unable to combat ISIS-K.
Despite not thriving significantly in Afghanistan since the fall of the democratic government and the withdrawal of U.S. forces, ISIS-K faces less opposition now than before.
Roggio noted, “The Taliban and the Islamic State are enemies. The Taliban pursues the Islamic State, but this does not make them a counter-terrorism partner. With the dual threat of U.S. forces and the Taliban targeting ISIS reduced, the group now enjoys greater freedom of movement.”
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When assessing the threats to the U.S. and its Western allies, Roggio stated that while the Taliban and al Qaeda present greater risks than ISIS, the latter has gained “more space to operate.”
Roggio remarked, “The Assad regime was an enemy of the Islamic State. With one of their adversaries removed, ISIS has more opportunities to regain strength in an area where it already has a significant presence.”
There is also a concern regarding ISIS’s potential resurgence in a third area if the U.S. withdraws its troops again. The Biden administration announced in September a plan to end U.S. military operations in Iraq against ISIS by 2026 in coordination with the Iraqi government. This decision sparked immediate worries among security experts, who argue that ISIS remains a significant threat to the United States and could jeopardize American soldiers still engaged in combating the terrorist organization in Syria.
Details regarding troop withdrawals are still unclear, and discussions about renegotiating withdrawal plans after the Assad regime’s collapse have not materialized. The incoming Trump administration is also expected to advocate for a troop withdrawal, raising concerns given the threats from ISIS.
Roggio concluded, “The U.S. must determine its commitment to Iraq and Syria to combat the Islamic State and other terrorist groups. If it chooses to remain, it needs to enhance its military presence to deter militia groups attacking U.S. forces.”
He added, “Maintaining U.S. efforts to suppress the Islamic State is crucial. Without U.S. forces, groups like ISIS will thrive in the prevailing lawlessness. As we’ve learned from Afghanistan, we cannot rely on terrorists to combat other terrorists.”
Fox News Digital was unable to reach the Trump transition team for comments regarding their plans for U.S. troops in the Middle East.
