LONDON — Few Labour MPs entered politics with the intention to reduce social security. However, with a financially constrained center-left government vowing extensive reforms, they are now facing a significant test of loyalty to the leader whose victory restored them to power.
Eight months after Keir Starmer’s decisive win, which was partly based on a commitment to move away from 14 years of stringent Conservative austerity, the Prime Minister is strategizing a new overhaul of the UK’s expanding welfare budget — notably, proposing cuts to benefits for disabled individuals.
During a meeting with Labour MPs on Monday, Starmer indicated that the cost of working-age sickness benefits is projected to reach £70 billion by the decade’s end. “That’s unsustainable, it’s indefensible, and it is unfair,” he remarked.
While ministers have yet to disclose specific details of their proposals, they have not refuted reports suggesting stricter conditions for Personal Independence Payments (PIP), which assist individuals facing additional costs due to disabilities.
One potential option, which has not been denied, includes freezing PIP instead of increasing it in line with inflation. Implementing this would likely necessitate primary legislation, requiring votes from MPs and members of the House of Lords, including bishops.
This situation unfolds against a challenging backdrop for Labour MPs, as Britain’s foreign aid budget is being redirected to meet U.S. President Donald Trump’s demands for heightened defense expenditure. Additionally, last year saw a decision to cut winter fuel payments for most pensioners while maintaining a Conservative-era two-child cap on benefits, which prevents parents from claiming welfare for more than two children.
Some MPs within the ruling Labour Party are already expressing dissent — though the extent of their rebellion against a government with a robust majority remains uncertain.
“I’m absolutely appalled at the prospect of what is going to be coming,” stated Brian Leishman, the newly elected Labour MP for Alloa and Grangemouth. “It is completely contrary to Labour Party values, it’s not why I joined the party, it’s not why I was a Labour councillor, and it’s certainly not the sort of agenda I want to pursue as a Labour MP.”
Further welfare cuts are anticipated to be “self-defeating” in the context of the upcoming election, according to a second Labour MP, who, like others in this article, spoke anonymously to share their views candidly.
A third MP remarked on the two-child benefit cap: “What’s the point of being an MP if we can’t rectify injustices like this?”
Owing Keir
Rebellions within the House of Commons are often difficult to gauge. Potential dissenters and the governing side each engage in strategic expectation management, exaggerating or downplaying anticipated numbers ahead of any votes to shape the narrative.
Despite this, it appears likely that any backlash will be restrained, given the efforts Starmer’s administration has made to ensure the selection of loyal candidates and enforce discipline since assuming power.
Michael Crick, a journalist who closely analyzed Labour candidate selections before last year’s general election, highlights a “ruthless” strategy by aides loyal to Starmer to position his supporters in winnable constituencies.
“The message was very, very clear. If you strayed out of line, you were at risk. That culture has continued beyond the election,” Crick noted.
Starmer suspended seven MPs who voted against the government on a motion concerning child poverty last year. Whips maintain that all Labour MPs must attend every vote, despite the government’s substantial majority.
Concerns about possible repercussions are viewed as a barrier to significant dissent, according to a fourth MP who has been in Parliament for nearly a decade.
“People talk a big game,” they stated, “but crossing paths with party enforcers, known as whips, is intimidating. MPs cast votes by physically walking down one of two corridors flanking the main House of Commons chamber.”
The MP also described how potential rebels could face backlash from colleagues on messaging platforms — but also acknowledged that digital communication can foster a “snowball effect” in favor of a rebellion. “It only takes one person to declare, ‘I’m breaking the whip,’ and others might follow suit.”
Starmer has already received backing from 36 Labour MPs who signed a letter of support for the welfare reform, arguing there is a “moral duty” to address the welfare bill.
“The loyalty is very strong,” a fifth Labour MP stated, with many MPs waiting to see the upcoming spring statement from the government before solidifying their positions. Ministers in the work and pensions department, with extensive experience in scrutinizing the welfare system — including Stephen Timms and Alison McGovern — are considered “popular and trusted” within the parliamentary Labour party, as explained by the fifth MP, who indicated that most colleagues are keen to allow them the opportunity to present their plans.
‘Arse-crawling’
Conversely, opponents of the proposed reforms are more doubtful about the overall sentiment among MPs. A sixth Labour MP suggested that colleagues are reluctant to voice their concerns publicly, feeling it is “futile” because many new MPs exhibit “arse-crawling” loyalty, vying for potential positions within the party.
A Labour aide lamented the “inevitable hypocrisy of MPs who pose for photographs at events for disability rights charities, yet will now contribute to worsening conditions for their own constituents out of fear of the whips.”
While some newcomers express reservations about the cuts, others appear unfazed.
Another new Labour MP, who shared their experience of coming from a disadvantaged background, suggested that as long as ministers commit to enhanced engagement with recipients of disability benefits, they would support the changes.
A different MP, representing a northern rust belt constituency, noted that their constituents “love” the idea of welfare cuts — along with support for increased defense spending.
Defying the whips
If Starmer successfully implements his reforms without facing a serious challenge to his authority, it will be particularly remarkable considering the deep personal significance of welfare issues for many within his party.
Several notable figures in his Cabinet, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting, have shared heartfelt accounts of the state support they received during their upbringing in the 1990s.
Many of the new MPs in their 30s, who became politically active in the early 2000s, first engaged in activism due to Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron’s austerity measures, campaigning against cuts to public services.
Ultimately, as noted by the fourth MP, the voting public will determine the extent of any rebellion.
“You don’t have the luxury of a limousine to take you back to your constituency; you must travel by train, where people will confront you and say, ‘you are a disgrace.’ It resonates with you,” they added.
