Mujtaba Rahman leads the Europe practice at Eurasia Group and shares insights on Twitter at @Mij_Europe.
On March 31, a significant political event occurred in France as Far-right opposition leader Marine Le Pen was found guilty of embezzling €474,000 from the EU. This fraudulent activity involved employing four fictitious assistants in the European Parliament from 2009 to 2017 and was part of a larger scheme to misappropriate €1.8 million.
Le Pen received a four-year prison sentence — two years suspended and two years served with an electronic monitor. Additionally, she faced a €100,000 fine and a five-year ban from public office, effective immediately.
This trial was not framed as a “political” judgment, but Le Pen is poised to leverage it as such, potentially gaining traction with her supporters.
During a recent rally, Le Pen characterized herself as a martyr, asserting that her “human and democratic rights” were violated. She evoked the names of Martin Luther King Jr. and Alexei Navalny, figures not typically associated with her anti-immigrant, pro-Russia stance.
Le Pen contends that barring voters from supporting her in the upcoming 2027 presidential election poses a threat to French democracy. Her narrative may resonate with many, both in France and abroad, who share her belief that the political establishment is aiming for her “political demise.”
President Emmanuel Macron and his administration are also apprehensive about the implications of a potential ban on Le Pen for the country’s political stability.
While Le Pen is not the sole French politician to face a public office ban, her case is unique and could incite further controversy. Polls indicate she is a formidable contender for the Elysée Palace in her fourth presidential bid, although her success is not guaranteed.
What lies ahead for Le Pen?
Recently, she has sought to bring her five-year electoral ban before the European Court of Human Rights and has requested a review from France’s Constitutional Council. Previously, she criticized both institutions for their interference in French democracy, but now, these courts might offer her a crucial opportunity.
However, the European court can only intervene after Le Pen has exhausted all appeal avenues in France. Therefore, her immediate hope for overturning the electoral ban lies with a “priority question” directed to the Constitutional Council.
This inquiry will not address Le Pen’s guilt or innocence. Rather, it will question whether the Paris criminal court had the authority to prevent voters from supporting a leading presidential candidate while she appeals her conviction, maintaining her presumption of innocence.
The appeals court has three months to determine if the priority question should be referred to France’s highest court, the Cour de Cassation, which will then have three months to either reject or forward it to the Constitutional Council. That body will subsequently take another three months to reach a decision.
In the meantime, prompted by government pressure, the Paris Court of Appeal has agreed to schedule an “early” trial for Le Pen, promising a ruling by next summer.
This situation means that the populist figure has a plausible opportunity to overturn her electoral ban before the March 2027 deadline for candidacy submissions for the presidential election.
While the odds of completely reversing her conviction and prison sentence are slim due to overwhelming evidence against her, if the appeals court nullifies the immediate enforcement of her five-year electoral ban while upholding her conviction, this prohibition could be lifted until all appeals are resolved — a process that could extend for at least two years — permitting her to run for the presidency.
Thus, Le Pen’s political future is still uncertain. Although she faces significant challenges, she is by no means finished — not yet.
