PARIS — Monday could be pivotal in the history of the French far right.
This day could potentially shatter Marine Le Pen’s aspirations for the presidency, a goal she has never been closer to achieving, according to opinion polls. Le Pen is currently on trial for her involvement in a scheme to embezzle funds from the European Parliament. A guilty verdict could bar her from holding any public office for five years, with the next presidential election scheduled for 2027.
While the future may seem bright for the National Rally, Le Pen’s party faces challenges in the immediate future. The party appears to lack detailed contingency plans for a potential post-Le Pen era, despite the prosecution issuing its sentencing recommendations last November. Concerns have also been raised regarding whether party president Jordan Bardella, 29, is sufficiently prepared to succeed Le Pen as the National Rally’s presidential candidate.
“It’s a bit amateurish,” remarked a high-ranking National Rally parliamentarian, who requested anonymity to speak freely. The lawmaker expressed confusion over the party’s lack of communication from both the party and Le Pen in anticipation of Monday’s verdict.
Initially, Le Pen seemed prepared to confront the challenges ahead. After the sentencing request, she repeatedly accused the prosecution of attempting to undermine her politically.
However, subsequent actions have been sparse.
“Le Pen mentioned she’d appeal, but this approach seems unusual for preparing for the presidential election, especially with the sword of Damocles hanging by an even thinner thread,” the MP stated.
The National Rally lawmaker conveyed little optimism regarding a favorable court ruling for Le Pen.
The defendants in this case, all of whom have denied any wrongdoing, are accused of operating a “system” that allegedly diverted money from the European Parliament, intended for assistants, to pay for party employees who rarely or never engaged in activities related to Brussels or Strasbourg.
Evidence presented by the prosecution suggests that many assistants did not fulfill their claimed roles.
“If you don’t work, it’s hard to prove that you did work,” the lawmaker noted.
Two years to go
Much can unfold between now and the 2027 election. If Le Pen receives a sentence but appeals, a new trial could potentially occur before then. However, this situation lies beyond the National Rally’s control, and delaying decisions could be a precarious strategy.
“We’re awaiting the verdict and depending on the outcome, we’ll adapt … If the sentence is immediately executed, that spells political death, so we’ll have to evaluate our next steps,” stated one of Le Pen’s close associates, who spoke under the condition of anonymity regarding internal matters.
While the 2027 election remains open for contenders, other potential candidates, such as former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, have already declared their intentions to run and initiated campaign strategies.
Despite maintaining a confident façade, Le Pen’s associate recognized the significant obstacles the National Rally would encounter if the court supports the prosecutors’ recommendations.
The National Rally has a backup candidate in Bardella; Le Pen has collaborated closely with him since he assumed party leadership in 2022. The millennial politician led the party during the last two European elections and in last summer’s general election in France, where he was positioned as the National Rally’s candidate for prime minister but managed only an underwhelming third-place finish.
However, Bardella lacks the extensive presidential campaign experience that Le Pen possesses.
“A plan B needs to be prepared, planned, and thoroughly thought out,” emphasized Le Pen’s associate. “Our plan B is in place, but he’s designated as our candidate for prime minister.”
