OTTAWA – Mark Carney, who has never held elected office, is widely considered a potential future leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. As polling indicates, he is the favorite to win the leadership race on Sunday.
Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, as well as a Goldman Sachs executive, is anticipated to succeed Justin Trudeau as both the 14th Liberal leader and the 24th prime minister of Canada, with support from the party’s nearly 400,000 members.
Recently, Carney criticized President Donald Trump, labeling him a “bully” in a statement addressing American tariffs imposed on Canada. “Canada will not bow down to a bully. We won’t stand by as illegal U.S. tariffs hurt our workers and their families. As Canadians, we need to face this challenge as one united team,” he asserted.
Canada’s CBC reported that Carney likened Trump to Harry Potter’s Voldemort in reaction to the president’s remarks about making Canada the 51st state. “When you think about what’s at stake in these ridiculous, insulting comments of the president, of what we could be, I view this as the sort of Voldemort of comments… Like I will not even repeat it, but you know what I’m talking about.”
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More than half of the Liberals’ 153-member caucus in the House of Commons have endorsed Carney over former Cabinet ministers Chrystia Freeland and Karina Gould, as well as past member of Parliament (MP) Frank Baylis – all of whom served in Trudeau’s government.
On the fundraising front, Carney has raised the most campaign contributions, totaling $1.3 million – over double what Freeland, a former foreign affairs minister, collected last month.
Polls indicate that Carney is the frontrunner to become the next Liberal leader. If he secures this position and automatically becomes the Canadian prime minister succeeding Trudeau, he could significantly enhance his party’s prospects at the polls.
A survey by the Angus Reid Institute, released on March 5, revealed that a Carney-led Liberal Party is only three points (37%) behind the official opposition Conservative Party, which stands at 40%.
According to a Leger poll released on March 3, the Conservatives are at 41% while the Liberals, with Carney as leader, are at 33%.
However, the same Angus Reid poll also found that 43% of Canadians believe Carney would be better suited to handle Trump as prime minister, compared to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who garners 34% support.
Even Poilievre has recognized that he will be facing Carney, the frontrunner in the Liberal race, during the next general election, frequently referring to him as “Carbon Tax Carney,” in reference to the Canadian government’s consumer tax on carbon emissions that Carney initially endorsed. During his leadership campaign, the former central bank governor proposed replacing it with an incentive program rewarding Canadians for “making greener choices,” such as purchasing energy-efficient appliances.
In a letter dated January 26 to Carney, Poilievre questioned whether Carney would be “any different than the man you are trying to replace” and asked him to commit to “banning any prior Trudeau minister from serving in your Cabinet” or if he would “pursue the same Trudeau agenda?”
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Norman Spector, who served as chief of staff to former Progressive Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, believes Carney’s lack of political baggage will benefit him as prime minister when engaging with the White House. “He doesn’t start out with any baggage with Trump, and I think that’s very, very important,” Spector said. He suggested that Carney should meet with the president promptly to discuss areas for collaboration between Canada and the U.S., particularly regarding continental security.
Carney must not come across as “Justin Trudeau in a different set of clothes or with a different resume,” emphasized John Manley, a former Canadian Liberal deputy prime minister and finance minister. “He has to be a candidate for change and be seen as the serious contender capable of confronting Donald Trump,” he noted, adding that the electoral focus in Canada has shifted from Trudeau’s unpopularity to Trump’s impact.
No longer affiliated with Canada’s Liberal Party, Manley remarked that Carney has “promised to move the party back toward the center and prioritize the economy, both of which would be welcome developments.”
Last Wednesday, Carney stated his intention to eliminate domestic trade barriers among the 10 provinces and three territories, which could expand the Canadian economy by up to $140 billion.
On the same day, Trudeau and the provincial and territorial premiers agreed to take similar steps to reduce reliance on U.S. trade in response to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
Manley asserted that the Liberals “must cease focusing on identity politics,” which he believes is significant only to a small group. “We can’t continue waging cultural wars. It severely damaged the Democrats in the U.S.“
He also advised that Carney should quickly call for a general election before Parliament reconvenes on March 24.
If Carney becomes Liberal leader on Sunday, he will also automatically be the prime minister-designate, as the Liberals currently govern under Trudeau.
The formal date for Carney to assume office remains undecided, but he would be the first Canadian prime minister never to have held elected office and would need to win a seat in the House of Commons. Thus, the urgency for a national vote is also personal, as it would allow Carney to contest in a yet-to-be-determined riding (district) to become a member of Parliament.
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Manley, who sought the Canadian Liberal leadership in 2003, noted that Carney will need fresh faces in his Cabinet.
He perceives Carney – a graduate of Harvard and Oxford universities with a doctorate in economics – as having an edge over Poilievre in the next election.
Born in Canada’s Northwest Territories, the 59-year-old Carney has had a long career at Goldman Sachs and also served as the United Nations special envoy for climate action and finance.
In contrast, the 45-year-old Poilievre has “done nothing but politics his entire life,” according to Manley.
However, Manley cautioned that “Poilievre is a very effective communicator,” and Carney must “demonstrate he can connect with the average citizen.”
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“Can he appeal to voters, many of whom don’t particularly read books – and may not even read newspapers?”
“Being a successful politician today requires a different skill set than it did even in my time,” he concluded.
