VATICAN CITY — On a drizzly Monday evening in St. Peter’s Square, some of the Catholic Church’s most powerful cardinals hurried to get into their chauffeured vehicles, eager to avoid uncomfortable encounters with journalists probing the obvious question: What happens if the pope dies?
The clerics gathered in the iconic square just an hour earlier for a prayer session dedicated to the health of Pope Francis, led by his right-hand man, Pietro Parolin, who recited the rosary with misty-eyed solemnity as large screens urged several hundred faithful to pray for their leader. Earlier this month, the pope was hospitalized due to a respiratory infection that has since left him in critical condition, triggering serious discussions regarding his survival chances.
This situation has incited feverish media speculation over potential successors, and when the prayer session concluded on Monday, journalists had a rare opportunity to press the Vatican’s top officials for gossip and insider revelations as they departed for their getaway cars — though most provided only carefully hedged blessings in response.
“It seems there’s no reason to discuss or even consider the pope’s resignation,” Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco replied to a duo of Catholic journalists, before declining to answer a subsequent question posed by POLITICO with a passive-aggressive blessing.
Nonetheless, with morbid foresight, Vatican media, especially in Italy, have already begun reporting on Francis’ illness as if he is already deceased, fervently generating lists of papabili — literally, “popeable” candidates who might take his place. Some have even suggested that preparations are already underway for the conclave to elect his successor, while others have pondered — despite the protestations of clerics like Bagnasco — whether the pontiff would follow in the footsteps of his predecessor, Benedict XVI, the first pope to resign in 600 years.
However, all of this may be in vain. Thanks to the peculiarities of Francis’ rule, observers indicate that this could lead to one of the most unpredictable papal succession struggles in recent history — if not ever.
Solitary beings
The typical image of a conclave, where cardinals are crammed into the Sistine Chapel and isolated from the outside world until they agree on a new pope, is characterized by factionalism, scheming, and aggressive clandestine lobbying both before and during the event.
While this system remains largely intact — except for reforms from the 1970s that disallow cardinals over 80 from voting — much of the unity among the College of Cardinals has been disrupted by Francis, who has diminished opportunities for cardinals to familiarize themselves with one another and, consequently, conspire, according to Miles Pattenden, a Church historian and lecturer at Oxford University’s history faculty.
Historically, Pattenden noted, cardinals were primarily Italian or European and would scheme openly and unabashedly in close quarters. However, Francis has appointed 73 of the 138 voting cardinals from outside Europe, from regions as diverse as Mongolia and the Republic of the Congo. While this move ostensibly aims to reflect the Church’s shifting demographics, it also carries a strategic intent, Pattenden added.
“Francis employed pious rhetoric suggesting that the Church needs to include Catholics from across the Catholic communion for broader representation,” Pattenden said. “However, it was also a clever strategy to ensure that cardinals do not know one another well, that they do not communicate, and that their routine interactions are minimized.”
At the beginning of his papacy, Francis also angered numerous clerics by abolishing regular meetings of the College of Cardinals, known as consistories, and by sidelining previously influential cardinals from the United States.
Today, cardinals are described as “very isolated, solitary beings, who roam like whales in the deep … many also believe in God, which leads to a paranoia about speaking out,” remarked one well-connected Vatican official, who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter, as did others in this narrative.
A cardinal in Rome noted that he rarely interacts with any of his new colleagues from these distant regions and, in fact, knows little about them.
“If the pope dies, they won’t know anything about each other — basically just his name, his education, and some bare essentials,” said another individual familiar with the cardinals’ operations.
Interestingly, many now rely on an unlikely source to gather information about their distinguished colleagues: a website called College of Cardinals Report, run by Vatican journalists Diane Montagna and Ed Pentin. While internet-based research might not seem revolutionary to the average person, it provides cardinals with a novel resource: a comprehensive online tool summarizing the theological positions and backgrounds of all their counterparts.
On this website, cardinals can find details about all 252 cardinals worldwide, including the 22 seen as prime papabili: under 80 years old (and thus eligible) and influential enough to have a chance. Among those mentioned are the staunch German traditionalist Gerhard Müller, the flamboyant American conservative agitator Raymond Burke, the Filipino progressive Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, and the cunning Parolin, Francis’ chief diplomat and longest-serving ally.
For now, at least, the content appears mostly fair: the cardinal mentioned earlier, spotted making a beeline for a cab amid the exodus of clerics at St. Peter’s Square on Monday, joked to POLITICO that he was relieved to see the website had nice things to say about him — mostly.
Francis 2.0?
While large-scale scheming may not be what it once was, another faction of cardinals operates in much closer quarters and is more likely already coordinating rival factions aimed at promoting their preferred candidate.
These are the so-called curial cardinals residing in Rome, appointed by Francis to lead Vatican ministries, or dicasteries. Many of these cardinals were chosen for their perceived loyalty; however, their apparent united front around the pope conceals significant ideological differences, according to a source familiar with Francis and his inner circle. Many of these cardinals actually harbor animosity towards one another, the source added, and once the pope passes, they are likely to plunge into fierce infighting — among liberals, German reformers, transient progressives, and concealed conservatives.
The outcome is unpredictable. Clerics may rally behind a younger candidate with better prospects, progressives might endorse a perceived moderate as a “puppet,” and conservatives could leverage their blocking minority — just one-third of cardinals — to reject any candidate continuing Francis’ legacy. After years of turmoil under Francis, others might simply seek a “normal” pope.
“Francis has centralized authority so much within himself that it will be fascinating to observe what the power dynamics will be once he’s gone,” remarked one close observer of Vatican politics.
Perhaps the only certainty is that Francis himself is unlikely to wield any posthumous influence over the conclave. Historically, power dynamics nurtured under popes dissolve upon their passing and are reconstituted along entirely new, unforeseen fault lines, stated Pattenden.
“Pope Francis appointed numerous cardinals, but this does not necessarily guarantee a candidate similar to Francis,” concurred Andrea Gagliarducci, a longtime Vatican analyst. “The factions will inevitably split in unpredictable ways, as we are dealing with a group of elderly individuals isolated in a location disconnected from the outside world. Anything can transpire in that moment. They will search for someone they can trust, someone mild enough not to threaten their positions. However, most considerations will be pragmatic rather than ideological.”
In the 16th century, Giovanni Francesco Lottini, the bishop of Conversano and an astute observer of papal affairs, reached similar conclusions in an obscure treatise on the conclave. He argued that cardinals ultimately elect a pope contrary to their own wishes, often converging “where each individually would not want to go alone.”
In other words, sometimes the traditional power brokers merely panic. Instead of pursuing the will of the Lord, many follow the herd.
