GLASGOW, Scotland — Following a strong performance in last year’s general election, Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar might have envisioned a shift in power at Bute House.
Yet, the aspiration to displace the Scottish government is fading, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer facing criticism from afar in London.
At Scottish Labour’s inaugural conference post-general election, where they notably defeated the Scottish National Party (SNP) by securing 37 of Scotland’s 57 Westminster seats, both new MPs and seasoned Labour veterans expressed concern.
They pondered how to reclaim momentum ahead of next year’s elections for Scotland’s devolved government. Many attributed the lethargy of Labour’s Scotland campaign to Starmer’s rocky start as UK Prime Minister.
“Keir Starmer can’t win the election for us. But he can certainly lose it,” remarked a senior Labour figure, who requested anonymity to speak candidly.
Starmer’s popularity has plummeted, which, in turn, has affected the Scottish Labour Party and Sarwar’s approval ratings.
A Sunday Times poll released just before the conference highlighted the challenges Sarwar faces. The poll indicated that his party was heading toward its most significant defeat since the initial devolved elections in 1999, despite the SNP’s tumultuous two years marred by scandals.
Supporters of Sarwar argue that there is still ample time to win back the Scottish electorate, asserting he will become Scotland’s next First Minister. Starmer himself, perhaps sensing the urgency, delivered a speech in Glasgow on Sunday morning announcing a £200 million investment in the ailing Grangemouth oil refinery—following accusations from allies that his government had neglected to support workers facing redundancy due to the refinery’s closure. Sarwar faced backlash too, as he had promised during the last election that a Labour victory would mean government intervention to preserve jobs.
“That is the difference a Labour government can make,” Starmer proclaimed to the conference attendees.
Personality Politics
This initiative followed intense lobbying by the Scotland Office, led by Sarwar’s ally in Westminster, Scotland Secretary Ian Murray. Allies of the Scottish Labour leader viewed the promise of increased support from the central government as pivotal for Sarwar, especially given the perceived inaction from Starmer’s administration regarding redundancy support.
However, concerns regarding Starmer’s impact on Scottish Labour’s electoral prospects extend beyond the oil refinery issue.
“When Anas is out on the doors, people ask him for selfies and really connect with him,” remarked a Scottish Labour MP. “However, I don’t believe people would have the same enthusiasm for Keir.”
Others have been less kind in their assessments of the Prime Minister, often describing him as dull.
“Sarwar’s biggest hurdle has always been Starmer. He has the personality of a house brick, lacking any warmth,” said Neil Findlay, a leftist former Scottish Parliament member.
“However, the more pressing issue is the policy decisions,” he continued, citing austerity measures that have cut pensioner benefits and retained Conservative welfare policies. “These have been catastrophic failures,” Findlay stated.
The decision to eliminate the universal winter fuel allowance for the elderly, along with its rollout, has raised particular concerns within the party. “There have been notable communication issues from the government, particularly in how No. 10 presents itself,” mentioned a Labour frontbencher at Holyrood.
This discontent has opened avenues for another challenger to the status quo: Nigel Farage and his right-wing, populist Reform UK movement.
Despite minimal presence in Scotland, Farage’s party is poised to secure enough seats to disrupt next year’s Scottish elections and Labour’s campaign strategy, which aims to project a message of change.
“It’s the ‘fuck you’ and the ‘fuck everyone’ vote,” described a Scottish Labour aide regarding Reform voters. “Many are feeling this way right now, which is concerning for us due to the increased volatility in the electoral landscape.”
President Anas
To mitigate the threats posed by Reform and the ongoing focus on Labour’s troubles in Westminster, numerous Scottish Labour insiders at the conference reached a consensus: to succeed, they must run a presidential-style campaign over the next 14 months, emphasizing Sarwar’s personality as a counter to his SNP opponent.
This task may be daunting, as Sarwar is currently less popular than veteran SNP First Minister John Swinney, who is viewed as having stabilized the SNP following a difficult period.
Nonetheless, Swinney does not lead a popular government. A February YouGov poll indicated that nearly 60% of Scots disapprove of its governance.
“It’s hard to fathom that we still appear to be leading the charge for next year after so long in power,” remarked a former advisor to ex-SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon. Meanwhile, a Labour frontbencher emphasized the importance of continually reminding voters of the SNP’s lengthy tenure in government.
Nonetheless, there have also been complaints regarding some of Sarwar’s decisions, including his recent U-turn on simplifying the process of legally changing gender. Sarwar had dismissed two MSPs from his frontbench for maintaining the same position years earlier.
Recently, Sarwar reshuffled his advisory team, including the addition of a former advisor to Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, known for his public critiques of Starmer.
While Sarwar has publicly supported the Prime Minister and praised his record during his conference speech, Starmer was mentioned only once.
“He truly cannot continue to be perceived as too aligned with the national Labour brand, which has been tainted by the government’s performance in London,” remarked a former Scottish Labour adviser.
Scottish Labour acknowledges the need to distinguish itself from the SNP and ensure it is portrayed as the disruptor to the SNP government rather than Farage’s party. During his conference address, Sarwar revealed plans for an Elon Musk-style government efficiency department aimed at reducing waste in the Scottish government. Journalists humorously dubbed this initiative “McDOGE.”
“If the election is framed as a chance to evaluate Keir Starmer’s government—akin to a midterm election—it poses significant challenges for us,” admitted another senior party figure. “We need to redefine the narrative to focus on what we would do differently from the SNP.”
