DROUGHT — From the front lines in Ukraine to the ordinarily damp regions of Belgium, a significant shortfall in rainfall has left much of Europe parched as spring progresses. This early drought poses considerable threats to supply chains and farmers, potentially impacting industry, trade, and global food security, further exacerbating the economic challenges triggered by unpredictable tariff announcements.
The European Drought Observatory’s latest update from mid-March indicates that areas in Poland, Ukraine, Greece, the Balkans, Sweden, Ireland, Germany, and beyond are categorized under orange “warning” levels, while parts of the southeastern Spanish coast are already under red alert.
While factors such as poor water management aggravate dry conditions, scientists assert that the consequences of man-made climate change, including irregular rainfall patterns and rising temperatures, will lead to more severe and frequent droughts across Europe.
A lack of rainfall combined with unseasonably warm weather — the continent recorded its hottest March on record last month — is intensifying the current drought situation, according to the observatory’s lead researcher, Andrea Toreti.
“The situation we are observing is causing considerable concern,” he noted, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. There, “the rainfall deficit has been accumulating over the last 60 to 80 days, and it’s accelerating. We’re closely monitoring this situation as it evolves rapidly.”
The current conditions are reminiscent of those preceding Europe’s devastating drought in 2018, Toreti stated. The severity of this year’s drought will largely depend on the weather over the next few weeks. Unfortunately, the outlook does not appear promising.
“The upcoming weeks will be critical. If it doesn’t rain soon, we’re looking at serious impacts on agriculture,” he emphasized. “The climate forecasts for the next three months in the already affected areas are not encouraging.”
The situation in Germany is deteriorating particularly rapidly. The German Helmholtz Center’s drought monitor indicates that more than half of the country is experiencing extraordinarily dry topsoils. While deeper soil levels are less affected, the upper layer is crucial for the young plants and seedlings farmers are nurturing currently.
Meanwhile, the Rhine, a vital artery for transporting goods in Western Europe, is seeing low levels typically observed in summer. Consequently, barges can only navigate the river with less than half their usual cargo, escalating logistics costs and disrupting supply chains.
Belgium is also grappling with a significant rainfall deficit. According to the Royal Meteorological Institute, there has been alarmingly little rainfall since March 1, with effectively no rain for 33 days and only 7.8 millimeters of precipitation registered at its Brussels monitoring station, compared to an average of around 50 mm.
“We’ve never encountered such a dry period,” the institute’s climatologist Pascal Mormal told L’Echo. Fortunately, Belgium, which experienced its wettest year on record in 2024, currently benefits from ample groundwater reserves and isn’t yet deemed at risk of a full-blown drought.
In stark contrast, the situation is far more severe in Central and Eastern Europe, where a dry winter has left soils unable to recover from last year’s drought. Among the hardest-hit nations are Poland and Ukraine, both significant players in the global grain market.
“A potential poor grain season resulting from intense drought could have a profound impact on the global grain market,” agricultural researcher Claas Nendel cautioned in a note circulated by the German meteorological service earlier this month, warning of a “drought year” for the region frequently referred to as Europe’s breadbasket.
While Europeans likely need not worry about their supply of baguettes and focaccia, soaring grain prices could destabilize global food security — which is already under threat due to cuts in U.S. humanitarian aid.
Moreover, dry conditions facilitate the rapid spread of wildfires. In Liechtenstein and Austria, authorities are already expressing concerns regarding fire weather. In Ukraine, the risk is heightened by stray Russian missiles igniting fires in parched fields and forests.
This spring drought is also intensifying pressure on the European Commission to introduce substantial measures as part of its anticipated Water Resilience Strategy, expected to be unveiled in June. This strategy aims to tackle the dual challenges of too little and too much rainfall linked to global warming.
Both extremes are increasingly becoming a challenge for Europe as climate change disrupts the planet’s water cycle. While many regions of the continent grapple with drought, Lanzarote in Spain’s Canary Islands recently declared a state of emergency following torrential rain and flooding.
