Arminka Helić, a member of the British House of Lords, served as a special adviser to U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague from 2010 to 2014.
The Western Balkans has long been viewed as Europe’s problematic backyard—a source of instability and conflict often dismissed with condescension and fatalism.
Historically, Chancellor Otto von Bismarck famously stated, “The Balkans aren’t worth the life of a single Pomeranian grenadier.” Britain’s Lord Salisbury echoed this sentiment, asserting, “You will never solve the Eastern Question … The only thing you can do is not to make it worse.” Such attitudes shaped a century of policy, culminating in the bloody wars of the 1990s, which exposed the dire consequences of indifference.
Despite this tumultuous history, the region remains strategically vital—a geopolitical area where Russia and China vie for influence and a transit corridor for illegal migration, arms smuggling, and organized crime. Now, as Europe faces its most uncertain period since the Cold War, this much-maligned region could serve as a catalyst for unity.
In fact, the Western Balkans provides a proving ground for a more confident and effective European defense policy—especially if the bloc can unite to avert a new crisis in Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH).
Tensions in Bosnia escalated dramatically following last month’s conviction of Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik by the State Court, resulting in a one-year prison sentence and a six-year ban from public office.
While this decision plunged the country into its most serious emergency since 1995, remarkably, its state institutions have maintained their composure, defying expectations of a catastrophic crisis.
Meanwhile, Dodik—who has spent the last 18 years actively undermining Bosnian state institutions with backing from Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—has threatened to deliver a final separatist blow to Bosnia’s hard-won achievements. Although he hoped for support from U.S. President Donald Trump, those hopes have proven misplaced.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismantled Dodik’s secessionist ambitions, stating: “The actions of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik are undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina’s institutions and threatening its security and stability. Our nation encourages political leaders in Bosnia and Herzegovina to engage in constructive dialogue. We call on our partners to push back against this dangerous and destabilizing behavior.”
Strong statements then followed from London, Berlin, Brussels, Paris, Rome, and Madrid. During a day-visit to Bosnia this week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte reaffirmed the alliance’s commitment to the country’s territorial integrity.
Yet, while firm international statements have provided temporary stability, words alone cannot counter the ongoing risk to peace and security, particularly considering the broader regional picture.
In Belgrade, Vučić faces mounting internal opposition as student-led protests against corruption and unaccountable governance persist with surprising tenacity. Confronted with this domestic challenge, he may manufacture an external crisis, potentially in Bosnia, to divert attention and consolidate his position—a move aligned with his expansionist “Serbian World” strategy to unite all Serbs within a single state.
Farther afield, the Kremlin continues to exploit division, viewing the Western Balkans as fertile ground for disruption. From Moldova and Georgia to Crimea and Ukraine, Russia has capitalized on insufficient Western attention and hesitance at every turn.
Europe must navigate this delicate situation with care. Autocrats in Moscow, Budapest, and Belgrade fear internal opposition more than external pressure, and the resilience of Serbia’s student protesters illustrates that nationalist revisionism is not inevitable. Resistance to authoritarian rule is growing even within Serbia.
Consequently, the Western Balkans now presents an opportunity for Europe to reverse its reactionary pattern through a strategy of deterrence, strength, and principled engagement. Several clear principles must guide this approach: Borders must remain inviolable; violence must be deterred; democratic institutions must be strengthened; and revisionists must not dictate the region’s future.
In Bosnia, Europe possesses the necessary tools for this: The European Union Force in BiH (EUFOR), NATO headquarters in Sarajevo, the Office of the High Representative, and the Berlin Process are all established, but the political will to deploy them effectively must be summoned. The announcement of an additional 400 EUFOR troops, now almost fully deployed, is a promising start.
Furthermore, Bosnia could be granted a security guarantee. A cessation of constant discussions over borders would benefit democracy in Bosnia and its neighbors—Serbia and even Croatia—often stifled by the need to protect “their people” in a neighboring state.
For decades, Washington urged Europe to “take responsibility” for the Western Balkans. With external threats mounting on multiple fronts and Ukraine fighting for its survival, the region now presents a critical opportunity for Europe to reclaim the strategic initiative and demonstrate genuine leadership—not solely through the framework of enlargement.
A proactive approach to BiH could signal that Europe is no longer content to react but is prepared to shape events—exactly the forward-leaning posture required in this new age of great power competition. Success in this endeavor would illustrate the bloc’s capability to defend its fundamental principles, preserve decades of painstaking peace-building, and reassert influence in a region central to its security interests.
The Western Balkans has long served as Europe’s proving ground. Today, it could evolve into the region where Europe redefines itself—not as weak and divided but as strong, capable, and ready to lead.
Whisper it softly, but in saving Bosnia, Europe may just save itself.
