The Tesla Cybertruck: Expectations vs Reality in Sales Performance

A few months before the first Cybertrucks were delivered to customers, Tesla CEO Elon Musk engaged with investors and sought to “temper expectations” regarding the highly discussed vehicle.

“It’s a great product, but financially, it will take, I don’t know, a year to 18 months before it is a significant positive cash flow contributor,” Musk mentioned during the October 2023 call. However, Musk, ever the showman, couldn’t resist adding some hype.

“The demand is off the charts,” he asserted. “We have over 1 million people who have reserved the car.”

Yet, over a year later, that demand seems to have diminished.

Recently, Tesla released its fourth quarter production and delivery numbers for 2024, providing a near-complete view of the Cybertruck’s inaugural full year of sales. Tesla does not specify Cybertruck numbers, instead grouping them with its older models, the Model S and Model X, under “other models.”

Tesla announced it produced 94,105 vehicles in that category in 2024, with 85,133 delivered to customers. Kevin Roberts, director of economic and market intelligence at CarGurus, estimates that between 35,000 and 50,000 of those “other models” sold throughout the year were Cybertrucks.

“How you view the Cybertruck depends on your initial expectations,” Roberts shared. “If you thought it was going to be a high-volume vehicle, akin to the Ford F-150 competitor, it hasn’t become a large volume competitor. But compared to a lifestyle pickup or the Ford F-150 Lightning, I think it’s performed quite well.”

Nevertheless, the Cybertruck did not significantly contribute to Tesla’s growth in 2024, as evidenced by the company’s first year-over-year sales decline in over a decade, reported in official statements.

Musk claimed that over 1 million individuals reserved a Cybertruck, yet this has not translated into 1 million Cybertrucks on the road. It remains early for the angular EV, and it could still prove successful. However, Tesla reduced the deposit reservation to $100, down from the original $1,000, likely boosting reservations among those who might not have intended to buy one.

The rollout encountered challenges: viral videos of a Cybertruck getting stuck in snow or sand; numerous recalls (seven since its December 2023 launch), including one related to a faulty accelerator pedal; and Musk’s visible support for Donald Trump alongside various conspiracies.

Despite this, the Cybertruck had a strong start, being America’s best-selling electric truck in Q2 of 2024, the third-best-selling EV in Q3, and the top-selling vehicle priced over $100,000 in the first half of the year.

In July, it nearly matched combined sales of all other electric trucks, including the Ford F-150 Lightning, Rivian R1T, GMC Hummer EV, and Chevy Silverado EV. Analysts suggested, however, that Tesla might have been fulfilling a backlog of older orders, indicating that the sales numbers may not reflect increased demand.

As the year progressed, signs indicated that the Cybertruck may have already reached its peak. There were reports of Cybertrucks accumulating on used car lots. Tesla Cybertruck factory workers in Austin were instructed to stay home for three days in December.

Meanwhile, numerous limited edition Foundation Series Cybertrucks, the first version sold, were accumulating in Tesla’s inventory, leading the automaker to reportedly begin removing the badging to sell them as standard models. Additionally, the average price of a used Cybertruck decreased from $107,800 to $104,300 by December 30th, according to CarGurus.

“The situation with used Cybertrucks indicates that the number of days these vehicles have been sitting on lots is increasing,” Roberts stated. “And the average price of used Cybertrucks has been on a downward trend.”

A brand-new Cybertruck remains costly: leasing starts around $900 monthly, while purchasing an all-wheel drive base model costs at least $90,000.

Image: Umar Shakir / The Verge

Though the Cybertruck recently qualified for the federal EV tax credit of $7,500, this benefit may be short-lived, as Trump is anticipated to abolish the credit — with Musk’s endorsement. Musk has a few months left to validate his 2023 claim that the Cybertruck will be a “significant cash flow contributor” within 18 months — but the outlook appears bleak.

Instead of following up the successful Model Y with a more affordable EV, which many analysts and investors expected, Musk launched a highly polarizing, questionably designed, lifestyle vehicle that is unlikely to match the sales of its predecessors.

“Tesla has experienced a significant volume loss; the Model Y ranks among the top five selling vehicles in the US,” Roberts noted. “Thus, they can produce high-volume vehicles, but the Cybertruck has not met that standard. It may face several challenges in 2025 that could hinder its path to achieving that kind of volume status.”