JOHANNESBURG – Key Republicans are already urging the incoming Trump administration to exclude South Africa from lucrative trade agreements unless the South African government shifts its stance regarding Russia, China, Iran, and Israel.
South Africa’s duty-free exports to the U.S. under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), including cars and citrus fruits, are at significant risk, potentially jeopardizing tens of thousands of jobs in Africa. The incoming administration is expected to closely scrutinize South Africa’s international relations.
A report from the Center for African Studies at Howard University in 2023 cautioned that countries seeking AGOA’s preferential trade terms must not undermine U.S. national security or foreign policy interests.
Recently, South Africa has participated in joint military exercises with Russia, permitting the use of its naval bases by Russian vessels under sanctions. Senior South African military personnel have received training in Moscow, and the country has refrained from condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the U.N.
The African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s ruling party, has engaged with the terrorist group Hamas, with reports of ANC members expressing pro-Hamas sentiments. The government condemned the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, calling it an act that violates international law.
South Africa has accused Israel of genocide at the International Court of Justice.
China remains South Africa’s largest trading partner, and the two nations are founding members of the BRICS trade alliance. The inclusion of Iran in BRICS has raised concerns about deeper ties between Pretoria and Tehran.
According to J. Brooks Spector, a former U.S. diplomat now based in Johannesburg, “Given South Africa’s positions on the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts, the country is diverging from U.S. positions, particularly in its pursuit of Israel in international courts.” He warns that this could prompt Republican lawmakers to advocate for stripping South Africa of its AGOA benefits, especially if the act is renewed next year.
According to Senator Jim Risch of Idaho, the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “I remain concerned about South Africa’s engagements with Russia, China, and Iran, including Iran’s terror proxies, and the implications this has for U.S. national security – a crucial factor in AGOA eligibility. South Africa’s foreign policy will remain under my oversight.”
Senator Tim Scott, R-S.C., also criticized South Africa’s actions in 2023, highlighting the country’s harboring of sanctioned Russian vessels and its opposition to Israel’s right to defend itself.
These prominent Republican figures are expected to gain influence with the incoming Trump administration. Scott’s office indicated, “Sen. Scott looks forward to collaborating with the Trump administration to ensure AGOA participants do not jeopardize our national security interests.”
South Africa’s actions are under intense scrutiny in Washington. Richard Goldberg, a former National Security Council member, expressed concerns over potential links between South Africa and Iran. He stated, “The first step is to publicly build the case and give South Africa a final chance to choose. We should declassify intelligence regarding South Africa’s relationship with Iran and any other support for terrorist organizations.”
Goldberg further emphasized the need for the U.S. to leverage its diplomatic and economic power, suggesting that AGOA should be one of several considerations.
South Africa’s Department of International Relations did not respond to numerous requests for commentary. However, Matthew Parks, the Parliamentary Co-ordinator for COSATU, the Confederation of South African Trade Unions, expressed cautious optimism about continuing U.S.-South Africa relations through AGOA, stating, “We are confident that our relations with the U.S. will continue to grow, as it benefits both peoples.”
Parks highlighted extensive engagements between South Africa and the U.S. aimed at strengthening ties and renewing AGOA, mentioning interactions with the U.S. labor movement, business sectors, Congress, and various government departments.
As Trump prepares to take office, South Africa’s ambassador to the U.S., Ebrahim Rassool, discussed the challenges posed by the new administration, particularly regarding the country’s legal actions against Israel at the ICJ. Rassool noted, “We will stand by our case, trusting our legal team and the judges of the ICJ to arrive at a fair resolution while refraining from unnecessary rhetoric.”
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Rassool underscored that South African oranges exported to the U.S. under AGOA provide American consumers with year-round access to orange juice, especially when domestic fruits are out of season. He further argued, “Why would you punish America with expensive cars when our BMWs are more affordable than those from Germany or local manufacturing?”
He added, “American cancer patients rely on medical isotopes sourced from South Africa.”
Removing South Africa from AGOA would have catastrophic consequences, warned Renai Moothilal, CEO of the National Association of Automotive Component & Allied Manufacturers. He cautioned, “It will not be surprising if some component manufacturers close their doors, and U.S.-based multinationals may withdraw from South Africa due to volume losses linked to our exclusion from AGOA or due to political pressure.”
Observers note President-elect Trump’s outspoken threats, including a proposal for a 100% import tariff on countries like South Africa if they, as BRICS members, adopt a currency that rivals the dollar. Conversely, South African politicians are adopting a more conciliatory tone. Emma Powell, the Democratic Alliance’s national spokesperson for foreign affairs, predicted that Pretoria’s relationship with Washington would become increasingly transactional, emphasizing mutual reciprocity over the Biden administration’s focus on investment and development benefits. She added, “The Trump administration is likely to take a more cautious approach to AGOA eligibility.”
Spector concluded positively, suggesting that the incoming U.S. president’s commitment to transactional foreign economic policies could encourage African nations, led by South Africa, to unite in proposing trade and market concessions to the U.S.
