LONDON — Keir Starmer leads a Labour Party that appears too big to fail. However, nine months after its sweeping victory, dividing lines among his party members are starting to surface.
The first noticeable division is between new MPs and longer-serving stalwarts, both of whom feel entitled to a larger role in Starmer’s government.
Starmer’s most loyal MPs, who support Labour’s decisions on cutting foreign aid and welfare payments, now find themselves at odds with the “soft left,” which expresses deep concerns about these policies.
Another layer of tension is emerging — this time between “town” and “city” MPs, as noted by some within the party. MPs from smaller towns, many of which returned to Labour at the last election, applaud Starmer’s initiatives to reduce immigration and enhance defense. However, they clash with urban colleagues who worry that the party is alienating its core constituency for uncertain gains.
“Disagreements between some northern town MPs and city MPs are inevitable,” remarked one anonymous Yorkshire MP.
Starmer and his lieutenants are acutely aware of the challenges in managing such a large coalition, especially given Labour’s history of infighting and the Tories’ collapse following their own massive majority in 2019.
The threat posed by Nigel Farage’s Reform Party targeting these town voters, alongside an upcoming critical vote on welfare reforms, may exacerbate existing rifts.
Courting the towns
Publicly, the Labour Party maintains a high level of unity, with few MPs willing to criticize Starmer or his policies openly. There exists a genuine camaraderie within the ranks, characterized by hope and confidence from being part of the first Labour government in 14 years.
However, beneath the surface, not all MPs feel equally valued in this expansive party. Many MPs who lean left on issues like immigration, welfare spending, and the environment feel overlooked.
One long-serving MP in an urban Labour safe seat expressed frustration over the welfare plan: “This was not what I expected. We can’t just be slightly better than the Tories.” Another MP confided that they felt “treated with contempt” during a No. 10 briefing on benefit changes intended to garner support.
Meanwhile, a new group of MPs is rising — those representing towns that changed hands in the last election, including areas from the deindustrialized “red wall” that fell to the Tories in 2019.
These MPs extend beyond the red wall to towns that include classic swing seats, which frequently change hands and are crucial for capturing votes.
Starmer has tailored an agenda that resonates with voters in towns, often described as socially conservative yet economically liberal.
A senior party strategist noted these voters feel abandoned by the party, identifying them as often working-class, politically disinterested, and economically pressured.
Policies like cutting foreign aid, boosting defense, tightening welfare payments, promising to slash immigration, targeting low-level crime, and cleaning up high streets are anticipated to resonate well with this demographic.
The strategist affirmed that this group’s priorities continue to shape Labour’s direction in government, asserting that Starmer’s actions stem from his convictions rather than mere campaign strategy.
As articulated by the aforementioned Yorkshire MP, “I’m sure if you’re speaking to a London MP, they’re not going to be cheering on what’s just happened with defense spending and foreign aid, but in my constituency, it’s been very well received.”
Will Jennings, a political scientist who co-founded the Center for Towns along with Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, concurs that “socially conservative voters in left-behind towns are indeed in Labour’s spotlight.”
Alienating core voters
These growing tensions are further intensified by the rise of Farage’s Reform Party, which poses a significant threat to Labour, especially as local elections approach.
Labour now views the populist right as one of their biggest threats and is strategizing accordingly.
However, pursuing votes from the right carries inherent risks. Jane Green, a professor at Oxford University overseeing the British Election Study, questions the efficacy of this strategy, given that Reform has primarily siphoned votes from the Conservatives, not Labour.
“Can they even win over Reform?” she inquired. “There’s a risk of misinterpreting these voters and falling into stereotypes, which is all too common.”
Simultaneously, there’s a danger of alienating existing Labour supporters, particularly in metropolitan areas, leading to votes shifting towards independents and the Greens.
“Welfare and Gaza both exemplify the government’s inhumane approach,” lamented one inner-city Labour MP. “It’s a combination of issues, not just one.”
As Jennings notes, this presents Labour with a challenge akin to what the Conservatives faced in 2019: managing a broad coalition in diverse regions.
For the Conservatives, it was a constant struggle between the “red wall” and the “blue wall” of traditional Tory strongholds. For Labour, it is navigating the red wall and an even deeper red wall.
Trying to get a grip
Despite the party’s internal conflicts, Starmer’s majority makes it unlikely he will face a rebellion that could derail his agenda.
Green pointed out that differences within Labour might be overstated, as economic concerns and apprehensions about the future resonate across all factions, appealing to their existing coalition and the voters most likely to switch allegiances.
Yet, Downing Street recognizes that managing a party of this size requires careful attention to avoid a fate similar to that of the Conservatives, who saw their coalition fracture and party discipline collapse.
Labour MPs are kept on a short leash through a mix of incentives and disciplinary measures, with an expectation of winning votes with a majority as close to unanimous as possible.
“Winning decisively against the Tories is a priority,” one experienced Labour MP commented, “but it also involves avoiding complacency.”
A Labour aide acknowledged that managing the party is “more challenging due to its size; No. 10 struggles to provide MPs with the attention they desire due to the sheer number of them.”
Starmer, alongside his whips and ministers, has made concerted efforts to maintain close relations with MPs by inviting groups to No. 10 and offering various non-ministerial roles, including “regional leads” and “mission leads.”
On the enforcement side, Starmer set a precedent early on that dissent would not be tolerated, suspending seven MPs who revolted against the two-child benefit cap vote. While four have since returned, three remain suspended.
One Labour aide warned that instilling fear in rebellious MPs could ultimately backfire, as they seek to retain their seats and ensure Labour remains in power.
As the vote on welfare changes approaches in late May, seasoned MPs anticipate that rebellion might extend beyond the socialist left to include experienced MPs from the soft left.
A loyal new MP noted, “Our experience has been dominated by the missions and the Starmer project,” while “existing backbench MPs had grown accustomed to opposing.”
Urban Labour MPs who resist the welfare changes may find themselves further distanced from favor should they defy party lines, deepening current divisions.
As the aforementioned experienced MP stated, this is only natural. “It’s straightforward; if you don’t vote with the government, you can’t expect loyalty in return.”
