LONDON — The U.K. and the global community are facing a potential climate disaster. In response, Whitehall is seeking early warnings from scientific experts.
The U.K. government has initiated a project aimed at establishing an “early warning system” for critical climate change tipping points. These thresholds, if breached, could lead to extreme weather and significant food insecurity both in the U.K. and around the world.
With a funding allocation of £81 million, this multi-year initiative will utilize advanced robotics — affectionately termed WALL-E by some researchers, after Pixar’s robotic environmental hero — to monitor climate change impacts in the Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic. Additionally, supercomputer models will analyze historical climate data.
The Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA), an independent body established by the government and influenced by former Downing Street adviser Dominic Cummings, will spearhead this project. ARIA focuses on research deemed too speculative or interdisciplinary for traditional funding avenues.
As Laurie Laybourn, a researcher on climate and security, noted, it is essential for governments to consider all possible outcomes regarding climate change.
Monitoring Climate Change
Details of this significant project are expected to be announced in early 2025. The main objective is to monitor changes in ocean circulation, temperature, and ice melt driven by global warming, which could signal the collapse of the subpolar gyre (SPG).
This marine current system is crucial for maintaining northern Europe’s temperate climate. The project will also assess the risks associated with the potential collapse of the Greenland ice sheet.
If indications of an impending SPG collapse emerge, it will signal that significant global changes may occur. While scientific uncertainty remains, some models predict that such a collapse could happen as early as 2040, leading to colder winters and hotter summers in the U.K. and Europe, alongside disruptions to vital monsoon rains in West Africa.
Ultimately, the goal is to establish a permanent monitoring system that alerts policymakers to imminent tipping points, providing critical time for governments and communities to prepare.
Sarah Bohndiek, a leading scientist in the climate change program at ARIA, expressed concern that the world is currently less prepared for climate tipping points than it was for the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The rapid response to the pandemic highlights the need for preparedness in the face of severe climate changes,” Bohndiek remarked.
Anticipating Catastrophic Losses
Warning signs of SPG collapse could lead to an even larger tipping point concerning the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change considers an abrupt AMOC collapse unlikely in this century. However, if it were to occur, the ramifications would be catastrophic.
A recent report by the Institute for Public Policy Research, authored by Laybourn, predicts that AMOC collapse could result in extreme cold, severely impacting crop production in the U.K. and leading to disastrous consequences for global agriculture.
The report criticized the government for neglecting climate tipping points in national security assessments. Laybourn advocates for the early warning system, emphasizing the importance of being forewarned.
A government spokesperson stated, “We remain committed to supporting fundamental research into climate risks, including efforts by the Met Office and ARIA, as part of our substantial £20.4 billion investment in U.K. research and development.”
Gemma Bale, co-director of the early warning system project, labeled the research as “edge-of-the-possible.”
“Our goal over the next five years is to demonstrate feasibility. We hope to stimulate discussions on how to develop this system and address these risks seriously,” Bale stated.
Both Bohndiek and Bale, who have backgrounds in medical physics, are collaborating with top climate scientists and sensor technology specialists to design the early warning system, while incorporating input from social scientists for effective policy recommendations.
Preparing for the Future
The selected researchers, referred to as “creators” by ARIA, will advance the project early next year.
Tim Lenton, a climate change professor at the University of Exeter, highlighted the potential rapidity of an SPG collapse, which could unfold within a decade.
Investing in an early warning system now could save significant costs in damages later, he noted.
Should the SPG early warning system be activated, Lenton outlined initial responses: “We would need to consider logistics for harsher winters, such as enhanced salt supplies and infrastructure resilience.”
In extreme scenarios, policymakers would need to evaluate sustainable agricultural practices and support for farmers. Lenton emphasized, “Forewarned is forearmed.”
In the unlikely event of a full-scale AMOC collapse, the implications for global agriculture and society would demand urgent and comprehensive governmental actions.
Laybourn described the AMOC collapse and its potential impacts as a “planetary-scale cataclysm,” underscoring the gravity of the situation.
