The Arctic is one of the coldest and least populated regions on Earth, largely covered by ice. However, in recent years, it has become a critical site of geopolitical tensions — a key focus of policy in the USA and across Europe.
Despite its inhospitable conditions, the land north of the Arctic Circle has long been inhabited by Indigenous peoples such as the Inuit, Sami, and Yukaghir. Today, it includes territories belonging to eight countries: Canada, Russia, Iceland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and the United States.
In 1996, these nations formed the Arctic Council — a forum that encompasses all eight countries as member states along with representatives from Indigenous groups. While the Arctic was once envisioned as a neutral zone for research and conservation to foster deeper international cooperation, various developments have transformed it into a site of competition.
The most pressing issue facing the Arctic is climate change. Since the 1990s, Arctic sea ice has diminished by 7.6 trillion metric tons, with the rate of loss accelerating by 57%. This decline contributes to rising sea levels and diminishes global solar reflection. Such changes create a feedback loop as the darker ocean water absorbs more heat, leading to further ice melt and adversely affecting global weather patterns.
The melting of Arctic ice directly impacts local wildlife, with polar bear populations projected to decrease by two-thirds over the next quarter-century as they lose their hunting grounds.
While some view this as an environmental disaster, others see it as an opportunity. The melting ice is making Arctic trade routes increasingly navigable, shortening distances for transoceanic shipping compared to current lanes that utilize the Suez and Panama canals. Additionally, enhanced navigability is expanding potential for exploration and extraction of natural resources.
The Arctic region is estimated to contain over 20% of the world’s remaining fossil fuel reserves, with over 400 oil and gas fields already discovered. Both the seabed and offshore areas are rich in minerals, ranging from essential commodities like iron, gold, nickel, and zinc to rare earth metals such as neodymium and dysprosium, which are crucial for electronics and battery technology. Even traditional subsistence activities may be significantly altered as global warming prompts fish stocks to migrate north and more coastal land becomes available for agriculture.
However, economic opportunities in the Arctic are emerging amid increasing geopolitical tensions, as countries scramble to secure resources, stake territorial claims, and develop facilities.
With 53% of the Arctic coastline under its control, Russia maintains the largest presence in the region, featuring civilian ports like Murmansk and Arkhangelsk, as well as multiple airfields and military bases along its northern frontier. More recently, Russia has sought to expand its claims to the Arctic seabed, coinciding with its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which has prompted other Arctic Council members to suspend cooperation with Moscow.
While land jurisdiction in the Arctic is largely settled, maritime claims remain complex. Control over Arctic waters is generally governed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which defines various types of territorial waters where nations may restrict foreign vessels’ activities. These range from internal waters that are part of a nation’s sovereign territory to exclusive economic zones, where foreign ships can travel freely but cannot extract resources.
Although the United States played a pivotal role in negotiating the treaty and adheres to most of its provisions, it remains one of the few countries that has not formally acceded to it due to concerns about limitations on seabed mining.
Even among UNCLOS signatories, boundary definitions can vary. For instance, Canada considers parts of the Northwest Passage to lie within its territorial waters, while most other nations, including the United States, view it as an international strait where foreign vessels may transit.
Similarly, Russia has claimed portions of the Northeast Passage along its northern coastline as internal waters, moving to restrict the right of passage in areas where it was previously allowed.
Given these disputes, the Transpolar Sea Route through the Arctic Ocean, which lies entirely in international waters, will become increasingly attractive as polar ice continues to melt.
The growing importance of the Arctic has drawn attention from other powers without Arctic territory. Several of these nations have been admitted as observers in the Arctic Council, including Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea. China, also an observer, has unilaterally declared itself a “near-Arctic state” and has expanded both research and commercial activity in the region by collaborating with Russia and investing in infrastructure in Norway, Iceland, and Greenland.
China’s heightened presence in the Arctic, alongside Russia’s assertive posture, has been among the reasons cited for U.S. President Donald Trump’s insistence on annexing or purchasing Greenland, a territory of NATO ally Denmark. While Greenland already hosts a U.S. military base on its northwest coast, this discussion is likely to result in further militarization of the territory, even under Denmark’s governance.
Satellites are also anticipated to play a significant role in exerting control within the Arctic, given the importance of observation and monitoring in remote areas with inadequate communications infrastructure.
What was once perceived as a frozen frontier with little to offer is rapidly transforming into one of the most contested regions on Earth. As the planet continues to warm, competition in the Arctic is set to intensify.
