Winners and Losers from the 2025 NCAA Women’s Tournament Top 16 Reveal

The USC Trojans, buoyed by an upset win over rival UCLA, moved to the 1-line. Meanwhile, South Carolina, hindered by a lopsided home loss to UConn, fell to the 2-line.

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Alade-Ọrọ̀ Crow

UCLA v USC“>

The women’s NCAA Tournament selection committee has announced a new No. 1 seed in its top 16 projections, stirring excitement in college basketball.

On Thursday night, just prior to the highly anticipated rivalry game between North Carolina and Duke, the selection committee revealed its final top 16 seed projections for the season.

Both the Blue Devils and the Tar Heels maintained their positions in the top 16, as did their neighboring Tobacco Road counterpart, N.C. State. If these rankings hold, it would be the first time since 1998 that all three teams from North Carolina’s Research Triangle host NCAA Tournament games in the opening weekend. Coupled with first- and second-round men’s games at Raleigh’s Lenovo Center, this region would become the epicenter of college basketball in mid-March.

In a significant shakeup within the top 16, the USC Trojans, following a noteworthy upset victory over rival UCLA, have ascended to the No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, South Carolina, affected by a significant home loss to UConn, has dropped to the No. 2 line. If these projections hold true, it would mark the first time since the 2018-19 tournament that Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks are not a No. 1 seed.

Top 16 Reveal:

  1. UCLA
  2. Texas
  3. USC
  4. Notre Dame
  5. South Carolina
  6. UConn
  7. LSU
  8. NC State
  9. TCU
  10. UNC
  11. Duke
  12. Tennessee
  13. Oklahoma
  14. Kentucky
  15. Kansas State
  16. Ohio State

USC Triumphs

The Trojans, who were also a No. 1 seed last year, find themselves back at the top with only one regular-season game remaining, set for Saturday against rival UCLA. This matchup now carries even greater significance, as a win for USC could displace the Bruins from the No. 1 overall seed. There’s also a possibility of a third matchup between USC and UCLA during the Big Ten Tournament.

If USC maintains its No. 1 position, it will be the first time since the 1983-84 seasons that the team has secured a No. 1 seed in consecutive years, reminiscent of the Trojans’ two consecutive NCAA championships led by Cheryl Miller.

South Carolina’s Setback

Despite the Gamecocks, along with the SEC’s Texas Longhorns, being the only teams in the nation with 11 wins in Quad 1 games, the selection committee expressed disappointment following South Carolina’s heavy defeat by UConn, 87-58, on February 16.

The silver lining for South Carolina lies in the ample opportunities ahead to reclaim their status. They will face Kentucky, currently ranked 14th, on Sunday and may encounter several top 16 teams in the upcoming SEC Tournament in Greenville, S.C., starting next week.

Tennessee’s Rise

This season, the Lady Vols are poised to host NCAA Tournament games in Knoxville, marking a significant turnaround after not hosting in the previous season during Kellie Harper’s tenure. Tennessee has risen dramatically, jumping four spots from 16th to 12th, having secured three victories since the first reveal, including a win over AP-ranked Alabama.

Overall, the SEC emerges as the most competitive conference with six teams in the top 16, while the ACC follows with four, the Big Ten with three, the Big 12 with two, and the Big East represented by UConn.

Ohio State and Kansas State are currently in jeopardy of falling out of the rankings. The Wildcats have suffered two losses since the last reveal, dropping three spots, while Ohio State remains 16th after a defeat to unranked Indiana. Continued missteps could jeopardize their homecourt advantage in the opening round.

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